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Two biggest things are:
1) The economy. If this meltdown never happened the election would be dead even.
2) Palin. He always talks about "country first" and that was his strength, but picking Palin showed he was a fake. If he was truly "country first" he would acknowledge his age and have picked a VP who was ready to step in without any coaching. That's not Palin and America knows it. He totally destroyed all his strengths when he picked Palin.
If he picked a sensible VP and the market didn't tank, he would probably have been able to eek out a victory by a slim margin.
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