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Unless people start equating Obama with a continuously eroding economy and the economy continues to deteriorate for the next 4 years, there's a high chance Obama will will reelection in 2012. People voted for change in 2008 and if he's able to deliver on these changes (against substantial opposition to be sure), then he would have put CHANGE and the ECONOMY on separate tracks. If that's the case, he'd be reelected--even with a crappy economy. Remember, FDR was reelected even with the economy in the tank.
Now if Obama became SYNONYMOUS with the bad economy and he flounders on promised changes, then he'd be a Jimmy Carter rethread.
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