Quote:
Originally Posted by ottyhotties
http://www.gallup.com/poll/121403/Sp...ly-Moving.aspx
Gallup says people are heading to the right again. If the Republicans would get back to small government and be more libertarian (practice what they preach), I wouldn't be surprised to see them capture both houses and the presidency again by 2012.
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That would be a very tall order. Right now they can't even get their own party together.
For starters if Obama is doing well and still has good approval ratings he will get reelected. It is very difficult to beat an incumbent president. It is nearly impossible if he is doing well. If things are going badly he could be vulnerable, but the overall view of the nation doesn't really matter because of the electoral college. If every person is Texas responded that they are now more conservative than they were 2 years ago, it doesn't matter because Obama will never win Texas. What matters is how people's views in swing states are changing.
When it comes to the senate, they could make some gains but to gain 10 seats would be nearly impossible.
As for the house there will be a census in 2010 and a redistricting. The last time this happened the house was controlled by the republicans and it took almost 8 years for the democrats to regain control. It is pretty damn hard for the republicans to control the congress in any year because the districts go by population so the population centers of the country end up with more representatives and those areas are typically more liberal. Since 1945 the republicans have only held the house for about 14 years.
Unless things go really badly for Obama I think the republicans will wait until 2016 to really make a big push