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To me his chances of winning a second term come down to 2 things:
1.The economy. If, when the election comes, unemployment is down to somewhere in the 6-7% range he will be very hard to beat. If it is more than that he could be vulnerable on the economy.
2. The republican contender. If he ends up with someone like Palin or Huckabee who really only has support among the extreme right it will be easier for him to get elected again, but if the candidate turns out to be more moderate and someone who can win a lot of the independents it will be a lot harder.
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