Here's how I manage the ban risk on Tumblr. My key insight is that even when a tumblr blog is banned, the stuff that's been reblogged by others remains "out there" on all the blogs where it was reblogged. So, don't focus on links and ads in your own template; bury them in your posts and aim to be re-blogged. So your links should be as low-key as possible. Which (to me) means not so many affiliate links (though I do use a few) and more natural/human/sensible links (with title attributes and good anchor text) to my own off-Tumblr sites.
That way I'm generating traffic and (social!) SEO juice, and will retain much of it even if my Tumblrs get banned. So far, no bans; but I just run one tumblr account with several blogs on it.
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