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It's definitely not penguin. Looks like you started to lose organic traffic from Feb, it might be part of Panda which is basically cleanup of spammy serp result by Google.
I think i know which site you are talking about here. While your site is a decent one i won't count on lots of organic traffic for generic term for a long time unless you have lots of inbound link pointing to you with that keyword.
e.g. "free porn video" is a hot term and raking for it changes all the time(in both US and all around the world) because people spam serp result. So, Google keeps updating algo for terms like that.
Your website most likely fall into above scenario. If it was for duplicate content due to your different sub-domains, your traffic would have falled a long time ago. HTML improvement won't cost you so much traffic either.
Here is algo update log: moz dot com / google-algorithm-change
Here is what was done in penguin very recently : youtu dot be / xQmQeKU25zg [Matt did mention about porn ;)]
I can share what my problem was or at least what i think my problem was. When my traffic fell for the first time in May, i thought my content was't good enough but later i found out(from webmaster tool) Google was getting lots of soft 404 from my site due to some SQL issue. So, i blocked Google to index those pages since they were only relevant page and not main content page. Traffic went back up within few weeks but it dropped again. So, this time i fixed the SQL issue and removed the blocking. Hopefully within next few weeks, traffic will go back to normal again.
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