I don't do tumblr but I'm always drawn to an opportunity to make a big score figuring out something people can't do anymore.
Does anybody know what happens just before you're banned? It sounds to me like there's some criteria (adult, lots of activity) that triggers a human review and then someone decides in 2 seconds whether or not you're an affiliate and not just a pervert.
The main thing I wanna know is if these reviews actually happen, is it all by people at a certain office(s) you could pinpoint with a geo-ip lookup? Could you make a totally clean looking blog, then host a javascript that just seems like a counter or something to someone flagged as a reviewer but for everyone else injects all your links and changes all the behavior? You see what I'm getting at? Like SE cloaking but cloaking for humans instead of bots.
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