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Before taking the podium at the UN General Assembly on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin had already stolen Washington?s thunder. By shifting new military hardware to Syria, the Kremlin seized the world?s attention, and set the groundwork for a new military alliance between Russia, Syria, Iran and Iraq.
By playing the Syria card, the Russian leader casts Russia as a decisive country ? and the only power capable of coordinating an effective front against Islamic State. Mr. Putin has also capitalized on U.S. failures in Syria: He and other Russian officials have played up the fact that the Obama administration?s efforts to train and equip handpicked Syrian opposition fighters have fallen short.
Here?s what Mr. Putin?s Syria gambit represents:
1 Reasserting Russia?s role in the region
Restoring Russia?s national pride has been one of the main themes of Mr. Putin?s presidency. Deploying weaponry to Syria and launching an anti-terror alliance allows him to project a muscular image abroad. The United States has long maintained military power in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, but the move to bolster the government of Mr. Assad ? and form an alliance with Tehran and Baghdad ? echoes the Soviet Union?s expansive foreign policy in the region, where client states once received weaponry, expertise and support from Moscow.
2 Diverting attention from the war in Ukraine
Following the ouster of pro-Moscow President Viktor Yanukovych last year, the Russian government annexed Crimea ? and sponsored an insurrection in Ukraine?s eastern Donbass region. But the Ukrainian state didn?t collapse, and Russia was slapped with punishing sanctions. Focusing on the Middle East is a sort of geopolitical sleight-of-hand, forcing policymakers in Western capitals to focus attention on something other than Ukraine.
3 Countering Islamic State at home
Russia has an Islamic State problem. The country has long faced Islamist insurgents in the north Caucasus region, but militants in regions such as Dagestan have recently rebranded themselves as loyal to Islamic State. The Russian government is worried about thousands of jihadi volunteers who may receive training and experience from Islamic State, then return home to Russia and former Soviet republics to wreak havoc.
4 Standing by their man
Russia has consistently supported the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Russian government has supplied conventional weaponry to Mr. Assad?s forces ? and has helped keep the regime?s helicopters flying. But beyond fulfilling contracts, Mr. Putin has also protected the regime, vetoing UN sanctions against Damascus.
5 Thwarting 'regime change.'
The Kremlin is fixated on countering what it sees as a U.S. policy of overthrowing unfriendly governments ? and a hidden U.S. hand behind pro-democratic movements in Ukraine and the post-Soviet space. In that worldview, Russia is the ultimate target of U.S. policy. For Mr. Putin, then, one thing is clear: countering Washington begins in Syria.
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