Quote:
Originally Posted by Condor
Historically, polls are a terrible method of judging these things. The polls are wrong more often than right. You would flip a coin and get better predictions. My guess of Jeb Bush might be way off, but something in my gut tells me it's not.
As for Clinton and Sanders, I really think Sanders is resonating more with voters. A lot of people don't like his socialist ideas, but that seems to be the only thing they don't like about him - other than his age. The only way Clinton is going to lock up the nomination is to get out ahead of her scandals and corporate backing.
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Actually, polling is very accurate at the time it is done. Meaning if the election were held today the poll numbers would likely be very close to how the election turned out. Of course, the polls can't tell the future. Next week someone could say or do something that seriously hurts or helps their campaign. In the last election there were 2 or 3 different republican poll leaders coming up to the primaries and none of them ended up winning the primary so it is hard to say for certain who will end up being the nominee now when we are months away from even casting a vote. Trump is in a good position if he can keep the momentum going, but that is hard to do.
I think Sanders is striking a chord with the far right, but I personally think he has pretty much maxed out his potential. They were disappointed in Obama for not being as liberal as they thought he was going to be and I think they see Hillary as being very similar to Obama in many areas. If they want a real left wing liberal Bernie is their guy. I just find myself wondering how much more of the party is willing to dump Hillary in support of him.