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To me, there are three likely scenarios here.
1. Trump was wiretapped and it was done in secret under order from Obama or someone high up in his administration. They ignored the law and carried this out in secret. I give this about 5000:1 odds of being true. The reason being, if they found something useful their only real option would be to leak it and it is unclear how much that may or may not help Hilary. I think Obama wanted Hillary to win. I think he badly wanted her to win. I don't think he wanted her to win badly enough that he would risk going to jail and destroying his legacy for it.
2. Trump was wiretapped, but it was done legally. This would mean a FISA court judge signed off on a warrant. This is no small matter. It would mean a judge would have had enough evidence presented to them that they were willing to approve wiretapping a candidate for POTUS. If this is true, it is terrible news for Trump because it means they have something on him that is bad enough to convince a judge to approve the tap. The odds of this being true? I give it about 500:1.
3. There was no wiretapping and this is all something someone within Trump's administration told him or suggested to him or in some way presented to him. There are stories coming out about how Trump exploded in a fit of rage after Sessions recused himself from the Russian investigation. I won't be shocked to hear someone suggested this to Trump in order to calm him down and take his focus off of Sessions and that whole mess. I also won't be shocked if Trump just made it up as a way to deflect the attention Sessions and the Russians are getting. The odds of this being true? I give it even money.
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