Quote:
Originally Posted by VRPdommy
To me... they are both at fault
They way I see it, unless more politically convenient, they will spend the summer gearing up putting assets in place while they use bad data to convince us of why we are taking the actions, but the target date for action would be sometime in Nov/December.
Shorter daylight give us a tech advantage and cooler weather help the equipment.
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I personally predict that this war's build up will not go along those lines. I believe we will first see a serious "incident" that will be bewildering, because it will be exactly counterproductive for Iran, but in any event, some tanker will be sunk (or pipeline exploded in Saudi Arabia, or something similar).
The USA will then take almost immediate "retaliatory" action (for their false flag attack) and fire ~200 Patriot missiles at Iranian infrastructure (designed to cripple Iran's ability to fuel its economy, as the oil blockade has not been working - with China, Iraq, India... still accepting oil).
The missile strikes will be responded to with a limited but serious counter attack - probably targeting oil infrastructure and shipping vehicles, but also maybe (or maybe alternatively) at the actual US fleet that shot the missiles.
From there, the war progresses in an unpredictable way. USA could start to stage massive troops with a build-up (justified by Iran's "aggression"); however, such a build up would be vulnerable to preemptive attack. Alternatively, the USA could (more likely would) begin a massive arial campaign while moving strategic forces into the region. All bets are off at that point.