heads up: Tesla will fail.

[dyna mo]

as much as i want them to succeed, there are too many obstacles in the way

1. horrible reliability

2. unproven driveline

3. warranty issues

4. overwhelmed charging network

5. one dimensional gigafactory

6. can't meet production goals/delays

7. competition

[TrafficTitan]

I have a Tesla it's an excellent car. You are wrong on all points except #6.

[Colmike9]

I don't want to drive next to someone using auto pilot...

[Mickey_]

In the red corner:
Elon Musk

In the blue corner:
Porn webmaster posting on a site called GoFuckYourself.com

Place your bets and let's get ready to rrrrrrrumble!

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by TrafficTitan

I have a Tesla it's an excellent car. You are wrong on all points except #6.

anecdotal.

no offense to your car, but overall reliability of Tesla model S is abysmal, it's a worst of the worst used cars with a record of below average overall reliability.

the driveline is completely unproven. it's only a couple years old and even Tesla states that warranty issues haven't been determined due to the lack of time on the driveline

the charging network is already overwhelmed. reports are unanimous across the internet.

the gigafactory makes 1 type of battery, lithium ion. when battery technology changes, and it will, the factory will be rendered entirely obsolete

all the big manufacturers are already gearing up to take on Tesla head on.

those aren't my opinions, those are facts.

[mikeworks]

4. is the biggest problem, there is currently insufficient power stations to charge them all.

[Relentless]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

as much as i want them to succeed, there are too many obstacles in the way

Running a knockoff business is about all those things. Running a breakthrough business is ONLY about the people involved. Breakthrough businesses defy all of that because they have an Edison or a Steve Jobs or a Branson.... or a Musk.

Elon Musk is now in the category of "I wouldn't bet against him if he said he was starting a business selling chainsaws to infants."

The guy just landed a fucking rocket on a tiny barge in the middle of the ocean... he can likely make a successful electric car too....

Im On A Boat!

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by Mickey_

In the red corner:
Elon Musk

In the blue corner:
Porn webmaster posting on a site called GoFuckYourself.com

Place your bets and let's get ready to rrrrrrrumble!

i've done my research both on purchasing a Tesla and investing in TeslaMotors. you can believe the hype about elon musk. i'll stick to facts.

[Mickey_]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

i've done my research both on purchasing a Tesla and investing in TeslaMotors. you can believe the hype about elon musk. i'll stick to facts.

I favor track record over hype.

[Relentless]

Incidentally....

Home Depot is not a hardware store, they are a financing and warranty provider that happens to use hardware items as a way to sell those services.

Tesla is not a car company. They are a battery R&D firm that happens to use electric automobiles as a way to educate consumers and fund their technological advancement.

[AntonMG]

Originally Posted by TrafficTitan

I have a Tesla it's an excellent car. You are wrong on all points except #6.

For #4, wait until model 3 hits the market.

I really hope they will scale up quickly...

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by Mickey_

I favor track record over hype.

then you're aware of how poorly Tesla ranks in overall reliability.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by AntonMG

For #4, wait until model 3 hits the market.

I really hope they will scale up quickly...

they have to scale from 50000 unreliable cars/year to 300,000+ reliable cars/year in 2 years to meet the presales orders for the model 3

[JFK]

Originally Posted by Mickey_

In the red corner:
Elon Musk

In the blue corner:
Porn webmaster posting on a site called GoFuckYourself.com

Place your bets and let's get ready to rrrrrrrumble!

[Mickey_]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

then you're aware of how poorly Tesla ranks in overall reliability.

On paper the iPhone uses outdated hardware, is overpriced and isn't the most reliable out of all smartphone options. Now ask most iPhone users whether they feel the same about their device.

Perception is reality...and the rest sorts itself out with a little help from someone with a track record like that of Musk's.

[Relentless]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

they have to scale from 50000 unreliable cars/year to 300,000+ reliable cars/year in 2 years to meet the presales orders for the model 3

No... they don't.

Apple also doesn't have to make the iPhone better than Android. People will be told Tesla can't keep up with demand, and they will wait anyway. People will be told Tesla is not as good as carX and they will want one anyway.

The people who slept outside Apple stores to get the new iPhone weren't annoyed they had to wait outside in the cold, and were aware they could just wait a week and get one with no line.

You are underestimating the brand value of Tesla and the people running it. They are not a car company. Apple is not a gadget company. They are marketing geniuses who will convince the world that waiting is better, that delays are important, that patience is a virtue and that better competitors are not as inspiring.

[Relentless]

Originally Posted by Mickey_

On paper the iPhone uses outdated hardware, is overpriced and isn't the most reliable out of all smartphone options. Now ask most iPhone users whether they feel the same about their device. Perception is reality...and the rest sorts itself out with a little help from someone with a track record like that of Musk's.

This.

/thread

[Helix]

We all have invested in Tesla Motors even if we didn't want to. It will be just another mistake in the long line of failed taxpayer funded projects ($4.9 billion in government subsidies) the genius's in DC decided to spend our money on.

[12clicks]

once the billions of dollars in government handouts end, so will tesla.
Just like all of the fake solar companies.
It's money squandered, not on research but on faking that today's technology works at anything close to profitability

[Fat Panda]

you're absolutely right...

tesla is a fucking joke and without billions is govt subsidies would not exist

[Relentless]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

once the billions of dollars in government handouts end, so will tesla. Just like all of the fake solar companies. It's money squandered, not on research but on faking that today's technology works at anything close to profitability

R&D is exactly what governments SHOULD invest in...

I'd rather they did it with DARPA and NASA than Tesla, so the tech was all public domain... but better they fund it this way than not at all.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by Relentless

No... they don't.

Apple also doesn't have to make the iPhone better than Android. People will be told Tesla can't keep up with demand, and they will wait anyway. People will be told Tesla is not as good as carX and they will want one anyway.

The people who slept outside Apple stores to get the new iPhone weren't annoyed they had to wait outside in the cold, and were aware they could just wait a week and get one with no line.

You are underestimating the brand value of Tesla and the people running it. They are not a car company. Apple is not a gadget company. They are marketing geniuses who will convince the world that waiting is better, that delays are important, that patience is a virtue and that better competitors are not as inspiring.

It's entirely inappropriate to compare Tesla with Apple. Building cars is orders of magnitude more complex than assembling smart phones.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by Mickey_

On paper the iPhone uses outdated hardware, is overpriced and isn't the most reliable out of all smartphone options. Now ask most iPhone users whether they feel the same about their device.

Perception is reality...and the rest sorts itself out with a little help from someone with a track record like that of Musk's.

People don't rely on the safety and reliability of their iPhone to get them to work and back day in and day out.

It's not a realistic comparison.

[crockett]

Originally Posted by Relentless

R&D is exactly what governments SHOULD invest in...

I'd rather they did it with DARPA and NASA than Tesla, so the tech was all public domain... but better they fund it this way than not at all.

Musk has released much of his findings to the public domain.

[TheSquealer]

Some of you dimwits are comical. Tesla is not a charity, it's a publicly traded company and the investors expect a profit, not a feel good story.

[Matyko]

Originally Posted by Mickey_

In the red corner:
Elon Musk

In the blue corner:
Porn webmaster posting on a site called GoFuckYourself.com

Place your bets and let's get ready to rrrrrrrumble!

Elon Musk is Da Phucking Man!

I Luv your post Mickey and hope you're 100% OK after the sunny Arizona case

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by Matyko

Elon Musk is Da Phucking Man!

I Luv your post Mickey and hope you're 100% OK after the sunny Arizona case

Comparing my pragmatic and realistic view of the product and manufacturer with the CEO of that manufacturer shows just how much emotion is being played into this.

A porner on GFY trying to make a snarky comparison between elon Musk and a gfyer is yet another invalid comparison when it comes to Tesla.

[Sednub997]

im going to buy Tesla one day.You wont change my mind

[AMDWarrior]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

Comparing my pragmatic and realistic view of the product and manufacturer with the CEO of that manufacturer shows just how much emotion is being played into this.

A porner on GFY trying to make a snarky comparison between elon Musk and a gfyer is yet another invalid comparison when it comes to Tesla.

LOL idiot

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by AMDWarrior

LOL idiot

I hope this makes you feel better about yourself.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by Sednub997

im going to buy Tesla one day.You wont change my mind

I'm not trying to change your mind. I've been at the GFY long enough to know minds don't get changed here.

I stated in the op I want Tesla to succeed. We want a model 3 and have a spot in our modest stock portfolio for long position on tsla. I not able to justify either one, I shared the reasons for that.

[shake]

I dont know much about them, but to me 4 and 6 seem to be symptoms of success, not reasons they will fail.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by shake

I dont know much about them, but to me 4 and 6 seem to be symptoms of success, not reasons they will fail.

Their charging network is already experiencing long wait times with the current number of cars on the road, they're planning on exponentially increasing the number of their cars putting it ven more stress on the network.

If they can't reach current production goals of 50000/year now, it's highly unlikely they will meet the targets set and needed in less than 4 more years, which is the plan set forth- 500000 cars per year by 2020. 10x current production numbers.

[Joshua G]

I agree with those who say the brand name is platinum class, even with the horrific reliability. Tesla is, to some extent, like lamborghini...impractical, but divine to own when they work. the owners put up with the charging headaches.

the question is, as far as tesla surviving, is making the numbers work. the wildcard on this matter is whether tesla can make the model 3 more reliable than the model S. If not, its never going to be a profitable company. But it may get by on branding alone as investors seek to keep mining for gold.

i think they should just stick to small volume, hi end owners. they should look to be like ferrari not like GM.

[pimpmaster9000]

reliability will improve given that there are fewer parts in an electric car and the new generations will have most problems solved...

a giga factory can be adapted...

charging networks can be added or even franchised to private businesses...

meek problems with you have $$$

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by Joshua G

I agree with those who say the brand name is platinum class, even with the horrific reliability. Tesla is, to some extent, like lamborghini...impractical, but divine to own when they work. the owners put up with the charging headaches.

the question is, as far as tesla surviving, is making the numbers work. the wildcard on this matter is whether tesla can make the model 3 more reliable than the model S. If not, its never going to be a profitable company. But it may get by on branding alone as investors seek to keep mining for gold.

i think they should just stick to small volume, hi end owners. they should look to be like ferrari not like GM.

another wildcard: lithium, the new gasoline. Most ALL of the world's lithium supply is in Argentina. and Tesla isn't the only EV with plenty more from the other manufacturers coming, including China

moreover, Tesla needs/requires ALL of that lithium:

"Elon himself mentioned during the Model 3 unveiling that Tesla will be gobbling up much of the world’s lithium supply with plans to produce 500,000 EVs per year. “In order to produce a half million cars per year…we would basically need to absorb the entire world’s lithium-ion production.”

[pimpmaster9000]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

another wildcard: lithium, the new gasoline. Most ALL of the world's lithium supply is in Argentina. and Tesla isn't the only EV with plenty more from the other manufacturers coming, including China

moreover, Tesla needs/requires ALL of that lithium:

"Elon himself mentioned during the Model 3 unveiling that Tesla will be gobbling up much of the world?s lithium supply with plans to produce 500,000 EVs per year. ?In order to produce a half million cars per year?we would basically need to absorb the entire world?s lithium-ion production.?

China is full of lithium shut up fag

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by crucifissio

China is full of lithium shut up fag

Nevertheless. You're deluded if you think China's gonna ship their lithium here instead of their own battery factories.

The name calling cracks my shit up.

Even if I were an idiot fag that's not as big an entrepreneur as musk, that doesn't negate the facts I've pointed out that Tesla has huge issues long term.

[kane]

What we might be forgetting is that Tesla is still a very new car company. They are going to go through some growing pains. Personally, I think electric cars are the future and I think the prices of them will continue to drop as the quality of them continues to increase. Tesla will have to make adjustments to stay with the growing market and like any other company they will need to continue to improve their product. Will they? Who knows. For all we know they will sell off the car division and become an aerospace company or simply a battery and technology company.

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by kane

What we might be forgetting is that Tesla is still a very new car company. They are going to go through some growing pains. Personally, I think electric cars are the future and I think the prices of them will continue to drop as the quality of them continues to increase. Tesla will have to make adjustments to stay with the growing market and like any other company they will need to continue to improve their product. Will they? Who knows. For all we know they will sell off the car division and become an aerospace company or simply a battery and technology company.

not only are they a new [car] company, they're attempting to disrupt the entire car industry and consequently, others. those are lofty goals and i applaud them for them, and hope they succeed.

but the hurdles are immense. heck, looking into lithium, it's price has doubled in the last 6 months and goldman sachs has put it in play as an emerging market to drive the price up for profit taking.

Spiking Lithium Prices Could Dent Tesla's Profits - Breitbart

[romeo22]

There is a huge interest for buying Tesla's car.They can be modify the car later and make it better

[fistinface]

Phew... I'm so glad you're here to give your opinion on this matter to us.

[2MuchMark]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

as much as i want them to succeed, there are too many obstacles in the way

You know they've been in business for 8 years now, right?

Originally Posted by dyna mo

1. horrible reliability

Prove it.

Originally Posted by dyna mo

2. unproven driveline

You've never driven a Tesla.

Originally Posted by dyna mo

3. warranty issues

Such as?

Originally Posted by dyna mo

4. overwhelmed charging network

A few customers waiting doesn't mean "overwhelmed", and waiting at a few stations doesn't mean overwhelmed network. Lol!

Originally Posted by dyna mo

5. one dimensional gigafactory

The batteries, like the tech in the cars, are open source. hardly one dimensional.

Originally Posted by dyna mo

6. can't meet production goals/delays

The waiting to get a Model S is only a few weeks. The wait time for a custom-made GM is 2 months.

Originally Posted by dyna mo

7. competition

Like who? All other EV's (including my Chevy Volt) get much less battery range and aren't nearly as fast. The upcoming Chevy Bolt is still a year away. The BMW i8 is sexy on the outside dumb as a post on the inside. ("Fake" motor noise through the speakers, LOL!) The Mitsubishi EV is ok but no where near any other EV. Tesla is win, win, win all around.

And then there is this:

Tesla Model 3 'approaching' 400,000 pre-orders as GM boss throws shade | ZDNet

Epic Fail, Sir Mo, Epic fail.

Originally Posted by Mickey_

In the red corner:
Elon Musk

In the blue corner:
Porn webmaster posting on a site called GoFuckYourself.com

Place your bets and let's get ready to rrrrrrrumble!

Yep.

[davidclickpapa]

Originally Posted by Mickey_

In the red corner:
Elon Musk

In the blue corner:
Porn webmaster posting on a site called GoFuckYourself.com

Place your bets and let's get ready to rrrrrrrumble!

[pimpmaster9000]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

Nevertheless. You're deluded if you think China's gonna ship their lithium here instead of their own battery factories.

The name calling cracks my shit up.

Even if I were an idiot fag that's not as big an entrepreneur as musk, that doesn't negate the facts I've pointed out that Tesla has huge issues long term.

bolivia and chile have hella reserves too, and the actual % of lithium in the battery is at 3% even if prices skyrocket its not exactly going to break the bank for musk...

want to know the real danger for musk? mercedes is entering the electric car arena in a serious way...merc has 100 years experience going for them and hella brand...

[PaulBaker]

Originally Posted by dyna mo

as much as i want them to succeed, there are too many obstacles in the way

Bet your Grandpappy said the same about Henry Ford too.

[slapass]

I don't think you have driven one. No one is buying it for the reliability.

[seeandsee]

Tesla will win!

[Barry-xlovecam]

I am voting for hydrogen fuel cells or some other new technology for long haul transportation fuel.

Electric cars will be practical for intra-urban transport. Most travel is commuting and local -- Tesla3 is a reasonably priced value -- you can see this by the pre-sells to date

[dyna mo]

Originally Posted by fistinface

Phew... I'm so glad you're here to give your opinion on this matter to us.

You're welcome.