kane

538 isn't a polling company. They (primarily Nate Silver) are statisticians who take data and try to present it in a certain way. In his case he takes the data and comes up with odds of a candidate winning.

A professional polling company would be something like PPP or Survey USA.

On 538 they actually have a list where they have analyzed the historical accuracy of the different pollsters and ranked them.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Among the problems with the polls you listed is the fact that the second one has 9 people listed there and only 3 of them are going to be on the ballot.

Bladewire

Anything you see in the media is fixed for Clinton. Any facts you're told are slanted & negotiable. Humans have done nothing to change or harm the environment.

The earth was given to us by God to shit on in whatever way we please and it's indestructible.

If anything positive about Trump comes out, it's only because of the power of his movement is so strong.

If Trump is found guilty in court, yet again, it was a rigged judgement, even if by jury.

Trump is 70 years old, if he dies any earlier than 90 years old he was murdered by Clinton & her cronies.

onwebcam

Yes but 538 is being quoted all over the internet as THE source for statistics. He was caught fudging the statistics literally going back and changing the actual poll results and there has apparently been a fallout within 538 over it. His historical and statistical accuracy in it's entirety is now in question..

The second source has been running since the race began with all included. You'll notice the stats for those that have dropped out dropped as well.

Jel

In my much younger days, before I was convicted of anything, I was still a criminal. Just because I got away with a bunch of crimes the police were looking at me for, doesn't mean I wasn't one. I knew it, the old bill knew it, and everyone who knew me knew it. 'Convicted' and 'criminal' aren't mutually exclusive words.

Just saying

onwebcam

If Clinton is actually leading by such a wide margin then why the need to change the figures? The ONLY reason is what is really happening and what Nate Silver wants to happen are two different things. What's to stop establishment pollsters from doing the same? As has been mentioned, Brexit is a great example of establishment polls not reflecting the actual votes. Even exit polls during the primaries are showing huge amounts of inaccuracies there is no question of fraud...

kane

According to that poll Sanders is still second. He hasn't dropped that much.

That said, I will still take the word of professional polling companies over random internet polls anytime. You can choose for yourself whether you believe them or not.

onwebcam

I'm sure a lot if diehard Sanders folks will still vote for him. The few that I know flipped to Trump.

If Silver can fudge the numbers right before our eyes and him explain it off as him being some statistical genius rather than biased I can only imagine what those that are polling behind closed doors are doing.

Jel

deciding on a leader based on who can win a debate out of the candidates is something I've never really got. It's not about what you say but about what you do - and I'm not even referring specifically to clinton/trump. 'Our team leader (whichever team that may be) is more cleverer than yours!'... wtf

Jel

Didn't Capone and Gotti get away with shit for decades? Or at least many years? And they were outright gangsters... Power = normal rules don't apply... this isn't like Fred Smith from 3 doors down being investigated for burglary

Rochard

So much for innocent until proven guilty.

I'm sorry, Clinton has been investigated over and over again. She has never even been accused of a crime, no less charged with anything. Our government - meaning the Republican controlled Congress - just investigates her because they "hope" to find something wrong.

Nine investigations into Benghazi revealed that Clinton used a private email server for some of her email, so we had to investigate. No one was even sure a crime was committed, but we just had to investigate. Well, great - but the investigation revealed that other former Secretaries of State also used private email for government business. Being as the improper handling of classified information is so important to Congress, why haven't they demanded investigations into Rice or Powell? Even though no charges were filed, Congress turned around and within days demanded yet another investigation. Oddly enough, they didn't demand we investigate any one other than Clinton.

Okay, a lot of time has passed to investigate the prior Secretaries of State so perhaps it's not in our best interests to investigate them. But what about other Congressmen who use their own private email servers? Using a private email server was common at the State Department and also Congress. Why aren't we investigating anyone other than Clinton?

Oh but Clinton has got to be dirty, right? She's in the pockets of the big banks right? Why do people think that - Because she was paid to give a few speeches? Sure sure - clearly she owes a huge debt to any company that ever hired her to give a speech. But wait, what about Trump? Trump has been working with the banks for how long? Forty years? Fifty years? Trump has made hundreds of millions of dollars working with the big banks, and every time he fucked up.... The banks were there to save him. Who has the ties to big banks? The person who gave a few speeches or the person who has borrowed hundreds of millions or even billions from them?

Do you really mean to tell me we've read tens of thousands of her emails, plus the hacked DNC emails and we haven't found anything even remotely incriminating?

This election has become a joke.

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Bladewire

The difference is Trump has a record of LOSING federal & civil cases including excluding minorities from his properties, tax evasion, antitrust, etc.

Clinton has no history of any convictions or losing any cases.

So if you admire Trump for being the bad guy that gets caught & convicted then admire Clinton MORE for being smart enough to get away with it without being charged , ever.

What do you choose?

If you just want a dude to lead then put your balls on the table (with pic) and admit it. Nothing wrong with that at all.

If you want the smarter criminal then who do you chose?

Relic

Bladewire

Have you ever served in the military?

Jel

I never mentioned Trump, nor did my quote of Rochard's. I am not speaking about Trump, merely pointing out the whole 'she hasn't been covicted so therefore cannot possibly be any kind of criminal' nonsense.

I 'admire' Trump for being caught/convicted? I don't keep close enough tabs on this shit to know or care - as I said, all I was doing was pointing out the nonsense about "not convicted = not a criminal"

Jel

Being convicted or not doesn't make you a criminal or not.

Jel

So... did they? cba to google

Gandolph

Clinton should get a job on Chaturebate to alleviate her stress and boredom. Trump should be her highest tipper, showering millions into her OhMiBod.

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Rochard

Using that logic.... Everyone is guilty of something.

I used to be a hardcore Republican, and then we had the Whitewater Investigation. Somehow a small investigation into an investment in Arkansas ended with discussions about blow jobs in the Oval Office. They pushed the President of the United States into a corner where he either admitted in front of his wife that he had cheated on her or he lied under oath. That was bullshit. And if that wasn't enough, Congress impeached him over it. That was pure bullshit and should not have ever happened.

Now we have more of the same - a political party in control of Congress who is OBVIOUSLY using the justice system AND the Justice Department with the intent of damaging a political opponent. Although there was zero indication anything was done wrong with Benghazi, we've investigated it more than 9/11. Tens of thousands of emails came out during the so called email scandal, and still no charges were filed. Yet more emails were hacked at the DNC and yet still nothing.....

But keep trying though!

Meanwhile Trump goes on trial in his fraud case in November.

And then of course there is this, which ties Trump directly into Russia: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/15/us...e=article&_r=0

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Paul Markham

That makes Trump a criminal as well.

Just saying

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Paul Markham

The Brexit polls were always close. The polls between Clinton and Trump are polls apart.

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Paul Markham

Absolutely. The OUT camp was continually ridiculed, Farage and Borage were booed at. Yet with all the fear factor thrown a majority voted OUT.

America has huge growing problems. Trump isn't the man to solve them he could make them far worse. But he's tapping into the emotions of lower earning White Americans, not enough to win an election.

America needs a man who knows those concerns affect all Americans and has policies to solve them or at least stop them from getting worse. The problem is will Americans share more of their money to give the lower half a better future?

And anyone who thinks money isn;t the solution, is a moron.

Goods made in the US rather than the Third World, kids having a future, better education, healthcare, Policing, Social Services, complete block on migrants getting jobs, housing, healthcare, unless the breadwinner has a green Card. This can only be done by Government of the people, by the people, for the people. And paid for by the people.

Knowing Americans I don't see that happening.

how many here are willing to pay 5% more to get billionaires out of politics?

Then another 5% to start rebuilding America?

Let'sd face it most of you are willing to pay 50% for healthcare to be in the hands of billionaires.

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Jel

Well duh, of course they are.

Jel

OMG I never thought of that! Who else can we name as a criminal for no relevant reason, whilst talking solely about clinton?

Let's start with all the male 'A's... you go first... this should do even more to keep the specific point right on track