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Discuss what's fucking going on, and which programs are best and worst. One-time "program" announcements from "established" webmasters are allowed. |
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#1 |
Confirmed User
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Join Date: May 2003
Location: Internet.
Posts: 745
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We're gonna see some popular programs out of the biz in the second part of this year.
Just sit and watch. I dont wish this to anyone but from what I've seen recently, its obvious. This industry is in need for new ideas... and i am not fucking talking about your new "just released" &#$#*#cash.com program.
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#2 |
FUBAR the ORIGINATOR
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Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: FUBARLAND
Posts: 67,374
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who are you talking about then ?
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#3 |
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Join Date: May 2003
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talking about all. general trend.
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#4 |
Confirmed User
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Spain
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Maybe..
I suppose with the decline of affiliates. The middle management, support, accounting and affiliate mangers will be hit hardest, You can run a business on very few staff, if you're only doing a few large traffic deals, and dealing program to program. |
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#5 |
Confirmed User
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Join Date: May 2003
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most will be closed coz the people are not buying normall stuff anymore
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#6 |
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 8,452
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I think it's already happened to an extent. Most sites aren't updating anymore. Lot of affiliate programs have cut back on their staff and many aren't even responding to support e-mails. There isn't a need to go out of business, just go barebones and get what you can out of the people sending you traffic.
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#7 | |
Choice is an Illusion
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Land of Obama
Posts: 42,635
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#8 | |
Confirmed User
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Join Date: May 2003
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Quote:
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#9 |
Such Fun!
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 13,900
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Being a Program owner,
are you seeing drops in sales? and how many affiliates do you have now that are promoting compared to 1 year ago? Obviously if you don't want to answer them questions I can understand why. |
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#10 |
Confirmed User
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I think we all see a huge drop in sales.
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#11 |
Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 14
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I agree but I say good riddance to bad rubbish.
There are far too many average / poor sites out there who have been treating the poor surfer like a moron for far too long. No wonder affiliates earnings are dropping thro the floor. The product they have to work is crap. The vast majority of porn sites are a load of rubbish. Sadly i'm an affiliate of a well known cam site who haven't bothered to update their webmasters front page for 14 months. Add that to the poor quality cams and its no wonder surfers aren't signing up. The big monolith websites have had their day and are now old-school. Its time for fresh ideas... |
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#12 | |
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Quote:
And i think it's time to turn some thing around. Instead of trial and error, shaving, stolen rebills and things like that, webmasters should really take care about who they promote and why. We are planning to offer more ads on our sites instead (direct brokering) instead of going trough unlimited circles of trial and error with sponsors. We send a lot of great traffic to shitty sponsors for years and I thing the time has came for a change. You have a new great program? We have traffic? Well pay and try your program. People should start putting their money where their mouth is.
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#13 |
Leaner, Meaner, Faster
Industry Role:
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Vegas
Posts: 20,959
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One of the things I've been saying in the big argumentative threads about tubes and torrents was that as an affiliate it has pretty much killed my ability to make sales to the hundreds of programs I promote.
BUT, as a paysite owner...I can tell you that our type-in sales are higher than ever. And as I stated back in the x-sell fights...I could see it happening. The review sites started exposing the affiliate business and explaining to surfers how it works. Freeones put up icons explaining x-sells etc. These were well intentioned things...but the results were that surfers now understand completely the affiliate business. And just like I did over 13 years ago when my eyes were opened about affiliates and how it works...they started NOT clicking on links and instead either typing it in or going to a search engine. I've been saying that for a few months now, and my stats re-confirm it everytime I look at Stats Remote. Here's some of my worst ratios for you: Fuck You Cash: 0:1284 Jug Cash: 0:2092 Naughty America: 0:2172 Nasty Dollars: 0:834 And the list goes on and on and on. I listed these 4 companies because before there were tubes and torrents I made hundreds of thousands of dollars with them. Do I think they are going out of business? No, these are great companies with awesome content. I'm theorizing that just like I'm seeing with Claudia-Marie.Com, they are getting the highest percentage of type-in traffic that they have ever experienced. Does that equal as much revenue as 2 years ago? No, not at all. Claudia-Marie.Com revenue has lost 1/4 of it's revenue from a year ago. And when I speak with other program owners...they are giving me much worse figures on their end. But not enough to shut down operations by any means for the majority. As for us affiliates? I'm not coming close to making what I did as an affiliate from a year ago. Up until this year, my affiliate money has always grown each year. In 2008 I made $539,278.77 with my affiliate work (keep in mind that is from being a pretty major affiliate since 1997 so I have a lot of cookies and a lot of rebills). That was the first year that I didn't really grow, because in 2007 I made $521,475.75 so I pretty much went sideways. But this year? Holy shit! Affiliate work isn't paying at all. I've lost most of my traffic to the tubes and torrents of course. And according to Stats Remote's forecast I'm on track to only make $316,731.37 for 2009!!! I don't care who you are...dropping over $200,000.00 in a single year is HUGE. Perfect storm of the explosion of torrents and the surfer forums that literally have links up to every paysite on the planet ripped and waiting for free. Yeah, it's hurting paysites. But it is KILLING affiliates. ![]() |
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#14 |
Fuck Checks, CASH only!
Join Date: May 2002
Location: New York City
Posts: 19,422
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a few things
surfers have harddrives full of porn, access to free porn and many other things, you either shoot crazy stuff that they dont have or cant find for free easily or dont shoot at all. for now the industry will continue to decline there are only so many ways to shoot BG or GG with the same fucking model. I am a program owner that has more exclusive content than most and I dont care saying it like it is, there has been a drop across the board and its the free porn that is killing it. And yes the person who posted its time for something new is 100% right, there has been little innovation in this biz in the past 5 years.
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#15 | |
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 8,452
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Quote:
I think the changes make it more difficult for smaller affiliates and will definitely weed out the riff-raff, but that's not always a bad thing. This industry has been bloated for years now and could use some healthy contraction (programs and affiliates alike). Ultimately though, if you are able to generate traffic, you'll be able to make money. That will not change. |
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#16 |
Webmaster
Industry Role:
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: BP4L - NL/RO
Posts: 16,567
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Evolution is a bitch
in 300 years people are talking in histories classrooms about the term " webmasters " and trying to give it a meaning. That this will be a 2 minute lesson may be clear for us all
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#17 | |
I am an Alien from space
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Join Date: May 2003
Location: Ontario, Canada
Posts: 11,118
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Unfortunately, I don't see anything "new" coming any time soon. I agree 100% that someone new needs to be done, but if no one has done it by now chances are that by the time it's actually done it will be to late. To many are just "riding the wave" and hoping that something will change. Well, it won't change unless something new and innovative comes out.
Lets hope that I'm wrong and we'll see something happen before the end of this year. Quote:
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#18 | |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 1,477
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Quote:
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#19 |
I am an Alien from space
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Join Date: May 2003
Location: Ontario, Canada
Posts: 11,118
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With the crap that does come out it's like Nintendo believing that the Wii has revolutionized game playing, but it did nothing close to that. So just like most of the crap that comes out as "new" and it will "change the porn industry and make it better" is nothing more than porn's version of the Wii. All hype and nothing nore.
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#20 |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 1,477
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Okies.
Spam time. ya know... you could all just throw 1800 numbers up on your galleries and tubes.. and hope for a little extra cash ![]() /spam.
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#21 | |
Fuck Checks, CASH only!
Join Date: May 2002
Location: New York City
Posts: 19,422
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Quote:
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#22 | |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 1,477
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Quote:
The Wii got chicks back into gaming. WalMarts can't keep WiiFits on their shelves. The Wii brought them an ASSLOAD of dollars.. It just didn't please the gamer nerds.
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#23 | |
Registered User
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Quote:
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#24 |
scriptmaster
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: Serbia
Posts: 5,237
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I don't understand why GenBucks is dead :?
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#25 | |
I am an Alien from space
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Join Date: May 2003
Location: Ontario, Canada
Posts: 11,118
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Quote:
It's like saying "New porn with full on screen interaction", but in reality all it is is a set # of commands/things you can do or say, but adds no actual fun or anything "revolutionary. We need something totally new that will make surfers want it like it's the air that they're breathing. Not a fad filled with hype, but no real value. I'm a little tired today so if what I'm saying makes no sense I apologize.
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#26 | |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 1,477
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Quote:
Let's just create porn that sells again... even if it's too a whole new market... like the Wii was ;)
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#27 |
I am an Alien from space
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Join Date: May 2003
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Posts: 11,118
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ok, lets make something that sells, but gotta make sure that it's not just regular porn with a small addition. haha
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#28 |
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affiliates are a pain in the ass for most program owners, inhouse traffic generation is the key word, only whales and/or big Networks will survive, I am told
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#29 |
Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 8
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Who are some of the biggest programs out there now? Anyone know where I can find a list in terms of revenue?
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#31 |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,985
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Most paysites can probably weather the storm, assuming things stay as they are now and don't get much worse. Honestly, it is about as bad as it can be. Everything is stolen instantly and everyone knows about tube sites so I can't see it getting much worse. Despite what everyone thinks, porn buyers DO KNOW about tube sites, in fact, porn buyers are hardcore porn users and they probably knew about tube sites before you did. So the argument that only those surfers who haven't found tubes are still buying is false.
The affiliates, even large affiliates are being hurt the most by the tube sites. Some affiliates have moved to dating but they'll get squeezed out of there soon enough. It's like rats climbing to the top of the mast as the ship sinks. Tube sites in the Alexa top 100 (sometimes top 50) are pushing the same couple dating sites as small affiliates. Meaning that everyone has been exposed to those ads and those sites already. You can only switch the names up so many times to keep getting decent ratios. The only game changer is if tube sites run out of profitable sites/products to promote and they are forced to change their business model.
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#32 |
BANNED - SUPPORTING TUBES
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: I live in a pile of boogers
Posts: 11,913
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this could have been said in any year since 1996 and it would have been true.
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#33 | |
Confirmed User
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Join Date: Jul 2001
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Quote:
about new things... there's a lot of things that can be done within existing boundaries, including alternative income, new ways of delivering content, retention optimization, content optimization, rational cost reduction and so on. Adult business was one of the more adaptive businesses I've ever seen, now I see everybody looks stuck to the same old formulas, but I think many people is scared of the new economic trends and it's just a question of time before they realize new times calls for new ways of doing things. Personally, I think most programs will be hit this year in one way or another, but I don't think most popular programs won't be able to cape the storm, one thing is winning less, another thing is losing. Funny thing is I've made a post a couple weeks ago regarding optimization of retentions, smart content and conversions and most people laughed even without knowing anything about it (even when it was RESULT BASED!!!!!!). I went as far to defy someone from a huge program that I'd put my own money on it and he backed up, so I'd say that basically people is scared of anything new or different. Happily, some people is smarter than others, some people listened to what I have and from there some are in conversations right now. But the point is many programs are in deny, they look like petrified on current economic issues
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#34 | |
Registered User
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 22,511
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Quote:
how many programs are able to generate traffic and master seo? not more than a couple i'm afraid. the affiliate model is going nowhere. |
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#35 | |
Doin fine
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Join Date: Oct 2005
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Quote:
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#36 |
Fuck Checks, CASH only!
Join Date: May 2002
Location: New York City
Posts: 19,422
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whales is a term that cant be used anymore
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#37 |
STANLEY CUP CHAMPION !
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 12,847
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Maybe you are one of the ones who will be closed. I hope not tho.
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#38 |
The Thrilla in Manila
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Thurbs' Lagoon, Christmas Island
Posts: 4,785
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i suppose this will mean more content blowouts and site catalogs up for sale. when this happens. email me :
terrence (@) elitedollars.com |
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#39 |
BANNED - SUPPORTING TUBES
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: I live in a pile of boogers
Posts: 11,913
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its always ending and those that are worried about it are always willfully ignoring the fact that many are growing and thriving.
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#40 |
Fuck Checks, CASH only!
Join Date: May 2002
Location: New York City
Posts: 19,422
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thank you oprah
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#41 | |
Leaner, Meaner, Faster
Industry Role:
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Vegas
Posts: 20,959
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Quote:
I'm sure that there are some guys who are newer (5 to 8 years in the business) who may be making what they consider to be "great" money on cams and dating...So maybe they are making more simply because they never made more back before the economy collapsed? I'm sure everyone has different circumstances. But for the most part sales are down across the board for everyone, and for affiliate sales to paysites it is downright dreadful. |
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#42 | |
Confirmed User
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Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: 127.0.0.1
Posts: 9,266
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Quote:
In today's economy, losing a 0.01% of the whole market could mean losing 10, 20 or 50% of your income. See, there's a fluctuating mass of money which will represent a certain market. In example, people will spend their money in housing, food, clothes, whatever..... and entertainment. Thus, adult market has a given share of entertainment and entertainment has a given share in global economy. More or less, it stands the same (despite what most people would think, people doesn't like to cut much on entertainment, however, bigger or smaller, there's a cut), but if the whole mass of money is reduced, it lowers the amount of money of any market niche. This way, it could perfectly happen that your sales increase and you have better conversions, yet you're winning less in absolut terms. An easy example: let's say I had 10000 uniques and made 10 sales. My market share was 10% on a market of $100,000. I'd be having 1:1000 conversions and getting $10,000 Now, let's say the total market is reduced to $80,000. If my share keeps equal, I'll get only $8000 (20% less), so even if my conversions grow 10%, I'll be losing money as long as my conversions don't hit at least a 20% growth. Obviously that's a very simple example that isn't taking in mind recurring sales for the sake of easy explanation. So yes, you'd be growing in relative terms and still losing in absolute terms. Problem is that market is reduced not only in absolute terms (as in total available money) but also in relative terms (as in shares of market). The thing is that if you were barely making it with a better economy, you'll be losing for sure with this economy. So, 2 possible solutions are: a) having something new and get a market share on novelty or b) maximize what you already have and keep the money in your pocket. There are other solutions, but IMHO these are the more easy to achieve with the lesser risks (in option a) it will depend on the "new thing", of course, but adult industry is usually an industry where you can launch new stuff at low cost)
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#43 |
Confirmed User
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Join Date: May 2003
Location: Internet.
Posts: 745
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Robbie got it very right. This is exactly what I was talking about.
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#44 |
Blow Me U Geeks
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Maximum Security
Posts: 5,108
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#45 | |
Confirmed User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 8,452
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Quote:
Mortgage companies were paying fortunes for leads and people were naive enough to enter in their phone numbers and e-mail addresses in forms. The government didn't give a crap about online casinos and pharmacies. The web has just matured. Surfers are smarter and more people are looking to cash in. |
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#46 |
Too lazy to set a custom title
Industry Role:
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 34,431
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the thread starter has a program in his sig that I assume is his that literally has almost no traffic - never seen Alexa rankings so bad for domains that have actual websites on them, I have domains with nothing on them that have more traffic.
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#47 |
Confirmed User
Industry Role:
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 9,512
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Our stuff is doing below 1:90 for the whole 2009 so far.
I don't receive nowhere much affiliate traffic, in fact it's only 14 days since first FHG's and tube clips were added as everything was in re-development for quite a bit. Affiliate traffic is in average below 1:500 as it's less quality. Top 3 affiliates are sending 90 pct. of affiliate joins. Legal tube site with licensed full length content channel is converting below 1:500 too. Our stuff is different and has a general appeal. Now it's needed to market it extensively, I'm fighting for a decent advertising budget to see what is the potential of the market yet. The conversions and $ / 1000 uniques are great but there's not that many sources of good traffic anymore and everyone is stressed out working, not easy to close them.
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#48 |
So Fucking Banned
Industry Role:
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,595
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gettin bad out there...
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#49 | |
Registered User
Industry Role:
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Encrypted. Access denied.
Posts: 31,779
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#50 |
Too lazy to set a custom title
Industry Role:
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 34,431
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the surfer forums with direct download links to every exclusive content paysite's movies and photosets hosted on file sharing hosts like Rapidshare, Megaupload and the 100 other clones are much worse a problem than tubes and torrents.
and if any of us were serious about it, there's only one answer to it, you track down the actual owners of these forums and you break their legs.
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I moved my sites to Vacares Hosting. I've saved money, my hair is thicker, lost some weight too! Thanks Sly!
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