If you blame the tubes, do you also blame...
 

High unemployment?
Record mortgage delinquencies?
Credit cruch?
Other shitty economic conditions?

Will sales recover enough for most once the economy gets better?

My own opinion is that right now it's survival of the fittest. Those that find a way to stay afloat through this mess will survive.

I fail to see how the adult industry is any different than other industries right now. The free component does suck but enough people are still buying to keep us here.

Discuss.

Free, I blame free.


.

I blame Canada.

i blame planet x.

I blame the 1997 mindset, and old guys not willing to change their ways.

There are some things people will always pay for. Sex is one of them. As in Porn.
I owned a nightclub, our numbers stayed the same when Economy was booming, and when it crashed. People will pay on certain things. Having fun and Porn are just a couple.

Also, when was the last time your favorite team stadium was empty. Never. Think about it. Money is still moving around. You never give away something free what people are willing to pay for, period.

If you do not change with the climate & technology, you have no one to blame but yourself.
:2 cents:

Typical adult webmaster:
Johnny are sales are down
Johnny: "o nosssss"
Johnny are we still pushing the same content
Johnny: "why yes"
Are we still pushing the same traffic sources?
Johnny "YES"
Do we have enough $5 banners?
Johnny "i just ordered 50 for a filipino designer on GFY"
WHAT COULD BE WRONG!?

its next to impossible to actually compete with free...

To the OP's original question:
I think it's a "perfect storm" that we face in adult with all those factors kicking in.

Would we be doing 10X better in this economy without piracy? Yes, I do believe so...people look for an escape during bad economic times. Back in the early 1980's we had a horrible recession in this country. But the movie industry, music industy, bars, and anything entertainment related had boom years...including the XXX vid stores.

Flash forward to this recession...it's happening that way again for movies and bars. Music and porn? Not so much.

So I think it's a mix of all those things. I think if the economy were strong...not as many people would settle for just jerking off to free porn and would decide to join and have membership privileges (sites that have live cam interaction and they can email the girls etc.). But with the economy so bad and having the choice NOT to pay...it just makes it that much worse.

A perfect storm.

EDIT: And keep in mind that people in this bad economy don't mind paying out $100 to take the wife and kids to the movies to see AVATAR in IMAX 3D And they don't mind dropping a couple of hundred bucks at a bar on the weekend partying. But for some reason...$29.99 a MONTH is too much all of a sudden? Well, of course it is when you can get it for FREE. :(

free could not be beaten in 1999 - 2000 during the boom:2 cents:

Mr. Romance

i love tubes

We didn't cause the "economic conditions" and there is nothing that we can do about them...

with tubes on the other hand we created them, and in theory could do something about them... :2 cents:

Robbie, about your:

So I think it's a mix of all those things. I think if the economy were strong...not as many people would settle for just jerking off to free porn and would decide to join and have membership privileges (sites that have live cam interaction and they can email the girls etc.). But with the economy so bad and having the choice NOT to pay...it just makes it that much worse.


That's one of myfreecams.com strong points. I watched a girl yesterday for 10 minutes. Counted about 18 guys ask to be added to her friends list so they could chat in IM. During that 10 mins, she also made over $100 for herself, so the website also made $100 from her within 10 mins, let alone the other models.

You need to adapt to the situation, not try to force shit upon people that they've seen the past 15 years.

i blame tubes all the time, for making easy money while the rest complains ;)

www.iblametubes.com

I still believe sites like rapidshare along with pirate forums have more of a negative impact on paysite sales than the average pirate tube site... Your average tube isn't easily searchable. Go to a pirate forum and compare the number of links to tubes vs the number of links to rapidshare or filestube, etc. The people at those forums are all the type heavily interested in a certain niche while your average tube surfer is usually more into general porn and getting off. The tubes have the greater volume, but the rapidshares of the world do more damage to those focused on niches.

Actually, funny story.

I haven't paid attention to baseball in years. A few weeks ago it was on the TV at a family member's house and they were bitching about the Oriole's not having a winning season in many years.

I figured Camden Yards would still be packed because baseball is a favorite past time in Baltimore.

The stands were empty. I think it was mentioned that attendance was either 13 or 23k. I'm pretty sure that stadium holds close to 40k.

Of course, lose too many seasons and you cannot provide a fun environment at games.

I don't really know if there is a connection or not.

It's because they suck. Check out the successful teams, like the Yanks, Phils, etc. They're always packed, and those tix are more expensive than a ticket at Camden Yards.

I agree. But keep in mind I'm talking about porn sites not camsites. In my opinion they are two different things...but maybe not since they serve the same need.

I think you don't want to "force" anything on anybody. For me, I'm striving to simply entertain people. That's where I came from and it serves me well. If you strip down an act like Lady Gaga with all the theatrics and cool stage show...it's still just a song and dance routine.

So in my humble opinion...you have to START with a damn good song and dance routine, and THEN change the packaging to fit the times (adapt). But at the very core...we still sell PORN. And the bottom line is this: Is the sex hot and does it make you want to jerk off?

So when I, as a surfer, have spent the last 3 days having fun on a cam site and spending money on all those amateur/girl next door types and had a blast...and now I'd like to see that overblown fake tit, huge collagen lipped, bubble butt fantasy girl get fucked by 5 black guys in an anal scene...I just go do it for free now. But I WOULD have had to pay to see that in the past.

I'm "Joe The Surfer" and I'm not as simplistic as many believe me to be. I don't eat the same food every meal. I don't wear the same clothes every day. I don't listen to the same music each and every time. I DO have my favorites. But I also have complex needs...especially when it comes to my sex drive and porn. I don't want to JUST talk to cam girls, just like I don't want to JUST watch porn scenes. I like both. I'll pay for both if I have to. But if you give me either one that doesn't cost me a penny...I'll do that instead.

100% correct.

Robbie it the term that I probably should have used: "perfect storm."

If the economy recovers tomorrow, does the industry recover?

When I see a big adult program fold the first thing I think is "less competition and more opportunity." There are plenty of programs that are running lean and doing just fine.

I want to clarify my point...

Free sucks, but I don't think it's the end of the world. There will be plenty more companies that fold and I'm OK with that. We have a glut and right now we have more supply than demand; it needs natural correction.

Having said that, if a company is serious about making it in 2010 and beyond ... and are willing to make the changes necessary to stay competitive, I do not see any reason why they won't survive.

The economy may even take out a few "good" companies, but if most hang on to the edge of the cliff with their fingertips, I think they will recover once the economy does.

Why? We do it every day.

I refuse to believe that the people that fill up my Stats Remote with sales have no idea about Porn Hub or torrents.

Why does everybody want to have the biggest or the cheapest site and use just 1 business model for the content? I just don't get it.

Porn is a brief fantasy for a short time and payment gets triggered by the right girl/niche/look/smile/etc. at the right time.

Most surfers pay for porn as a impulse buy.

Yet +/- <1% of most programs offer a quick fix in billing pages. The whole process takes too long when you have a hard dick and want a quick fix.

Ever thought about recurring coud scare off surfers? Is that why VOD's have better conversions? What you see is what you get is what most users want I assume, so why do programs fear and assume a surfer won't come back and take as much as they can this instant?

Maybe a satisfied surfer WILL come back every few days and buys a "little" instead of joining a "club" for $360 per year (where it comes down to in the eyes of the user maybe).

Ever thought of a user just paying $5 to $40 for a single dvd/scene he likes? It would surprise you what the results could be.....if you have the languages/Geo-ip/local billing set up correctly that is and use local marketing and local affiliates that send targetted pre filtered traffic.

You could end upo doing 1:50 to 1:100 easy with the same content now being sold at 29,95 a month "all you can eat".

Why don't programs offer (next to a membership) a possibility to buy per scene, per dvd, per day, per week, per minute, per hour, per 24 hours..?? They already HAVE the content and the traffic...why not test other business models.

"No it's the tubes" ...too easy. Look for a scapegoat. Some self reflection could come in handy sometimes.

There will always be people with money and willing to buy users. You just need to figure out and test HOW and WHEN, in what business model they wanna have it in and how they want to pay for it. Who cares that SMS or other billing methods eats up half the profit if it could bring 5 times as much revenue and make the hard dick impatient users happy by paying safe/anonymous within 3 seconds so they can continue to fap on a 120 minute dvd for 5 or 10 mins. tops?

Not everybody has a creditcard or trusts (porn) sites with their creditcard info.

Make it easy for the user. The tubes did. Why not the paysites? Only difference is a small payment within a few seconds.

Just think about it for a second from a users point of view...

I am off to bed, past midnight here :)

Agreed, plus the self-reflection. Everyone is looking for excuses and is blaming everyone but themselves, while there are millionaires popping up from porn.

Millionaires can spring ONLY from many happy end users with a good business model, if the busniness model would suck and the users would not find the appealing X-factor, they would/will be whining and looking for others to blame, I agree. (unless they fraude with the users, which is option No. 2 btw)

X-factor/Idols is a nice parallel here btw. Sometimes it's not enough just to be able to sing...some singers can make people cry, stand on their tables, become a fan and get a dedicated crowd visiting their concerts. Think about it for a second. Same emontion as porn most likely; either they hate it, they love it or it's just "ok", which is not good enough to succeed.

It won't be get better. The surfer is know aware of the "freebies"
Anything you can download, burn, copy etc... will get get online and get shared !

Just ask the music industry about it.

To combat that, the music industry got creative and started new licensing deals and got on board with the pay-per-song pricing model.

It still exists. Not as strong as it once was but it also isn't going anywhere.

Should we be taking cues from them?

Itunes, spotify, etc. make the music industry some money for sure.
But the music industry make most their money from licensing. Anthing from T-shirts to baseball caps and posters.
The artists themselves make the most with concerts, not cd sales.

INDEED!
The forums are usually filled with your ex members who found it for free.
duke

Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. No.

No, we didn't start the tubes, mainstream did. Youtube did. Laws were made to protect stealing at youtube, adult just jumped on the bandwagon.

its in my sig, the answer is in my sig ;)

We had a record April putting us at our best ever april monthly revenue in 11 years so blame tubes, no. Blame unemployment etc, nope.

Just hard work paying off so all good here!

Well you can look at it like this...there will only be more and more tubes and more more free stuff and more and more people who find out and won't pay anymore. its not going to be less tubes and more people wanting to pay.

That's not necessarily true. The tubes can possibly lead to the nightmare scenario we have always had with our TGP's. Since the 1990's we have been scared to death that the govt. would come up with a law requiring all nudity to be kept behind password protected sites that require payment. You know, to save the poor children from accidentally seeing fucking (heaven forbid).

But somehow we always stayed under the radar...but it was still like the Sword Of Damacles hanging in the air over our heads.

But the big tubes? They are bigger and 10x more popular than we ever were. Sure we had 15 year olds all over our tgps. If I were 15 that's where I would have been jerking off to galleries. But now? FULL scenes? That's like nirvana to these teenagers.

So they are flocking to pornhub and others. Eventually somebody in power who is a religious nutcase is gonna catch his son jerking off to a gay porn clip on pornhub and then the wheels will set in motion.

Shut down free porn completely and you cripple everybody. All affiliates, every paysite, etc.

It's the "nuclear option" If it happens we are all screwed. And you can definitely blame the tubes for that.

But that would take down the tubes no doubt. :(

i don't blame tubes.

I only blame those paysites that don't protect their content...

If I promote a paysite and then I see their COMPLE SITE RIP given away for free in HD, on extreme-board or pornbb dot org, we actually have a problem.

You are NOT going to make money if what you are trying to sell, is available for free EVERYWHERE. there is no such thing as "an ethic customer" or someone who is kind enough "to pay" nowadays, anymore.

Most Blockbusters have closed long ago on 3rd world for obvious reasons, and Blockbusters have their days counted on USA as well.

Your chances are selling a tangible product or a SERVICE that cannot be found for free. THERE, you are going to make money.

Jesus christ :helpme
Anyways...

Robbie is talking about some form of AVS system. Everything would be under an "age verification system" so to speak. I thought that would be a solution back then. Also, we are teaching surfers to no buy anymore, look at the music industry. I know i'm repeating myself but i want to make sure that everyone gets a chance to read this.

Ain't looking good guys, ain't looking good guys :upsidedow

Hey I never heard of you before. But I just signed up and I'll start promoting tonight. :)

Hey Robbie, are you the owner of Ampland or is that someone else? I always thought grampland and ampland have the same owner, maybe I'm wrong.

Al4a owns ampland. Not the website al4a (it was sold to Pierre some years back) but the guy Al4a. He and I split up our partnership in Nov. of 2006. I was ampland up until then. He has been ampland ever since. So yeah, at one time ampland, grampland, and shavedgoat were all me. But now if you are interested in ampland...Al is your man. Write him at Al at ampland dot com

Cool, thanks for clearing that up for me. :thumbsup

I blame my own self... hey!

Is it still too late to blame George Bush or has Obama played that blame out?

Obama, in just one year, has nearly DOUBLED the national debt, running up as much debt
as every other president in history combined. How big of a hole? $42,263.89 for each man,
woman, and child in the country. Given that Obama spent $20,000 per person that we don't
have, I think the responsibility lays squarely on his shoulders at this point. The last six months
or so under Bush was a weak economy, but nothing like what Obama has done, spending twice
as much as the government has coming in.

Vices have always been, on a historic basis, to be fairly recession proof. While we'd see some decline due to crappy economy, it's nothing compared to what tubes and file share sites are doing to us.