Right now, there's a law that caps oil companies liability at $75 million. Peanuts for BP. Although, they have stated they will pay their portion and no doubt the government will sue them for billions. BP has $20 billion in cash, a huge credit line with next to nothing in interest, and they make about $4 billion net a quarter.

An interesting comparison for these companies who had disasters.

Massey Energy - 300 million gallons of sludge spill in 2002. Stock is up 313% versus a 23% loss for the S&P.

Exxon Valdez spill - Exxon up 930% versus the S&P's 271% gain.

All signs point that this is a buying opportunity.

BP is a very risky play. Matt Simmons is very smart. If he says BP will declare Chapter 11 then I would short BP.

Why would they declare chapter 11 if they make 16 billion a year?

yes, this is what i believe will happen if the lawsuits and cleanup get too costly...

chap 11 re org would be perfect way for bp to get out of this...






.

Matt Simmons is usually dead on, but he's seems to have gone off the deep end a bit with this one.

In more light-hearted news:


http://i45.tinypic.com/23w8pvl.jpg

They will recover from it eventually, all while earning 10%+/year from dividends... risk is substantial, but around 30/share it's a great buy, one of the best money making opportunities I've seen in a while...

Bankruptcy isn't happening... it's obviously in no one's best interest to force them into bankruptcy... even if the costs add up to gazillions of dollars, it will get spread out over next 100 years... :2 cents:

the big falls yesterday/today have come about becuase there's doubt bp will pay its dividends this quarter, not because it can't afford to, but because bp feels it will create too much anger if it does. i agree its a great buy long term.

Close enough? Excuse me but $1200 is like 20% off of $1500. Not exactly "close"

words are cheap..
those who have had the balls to follow this advise should show us your trade confirmation(s)

Catch the falling knife!

You are right, but I am waiting for them to bottom up a little more, the stock will dip further and I'm going to wait for the perfect time before investing in their stocks. Rest assured, when it rises, we will make a killing.

Thanks for the tip. I'll go buy some.

BP shares (which pay a fat dividend) are a STEAL at these prices. Go buy it, guys. Sure, there's a risk of bankruptcy, that's why the price is so low.

Consider after seeing stock tips on an adult webmaster forum, to short or dump all positions on this ticker. Contrarian investing. People move in herds. Herds have known to fail big time in financial markets. Crowd behaves much differently than an individual who might be rational thinker. Stock prices move because of what the majority of people think. If people think BP's future losses are already built into the price, then the prices will reflect this sentiment, not the company's true value or risks.

Don't forget this stock has split 4 fucking times already....you can't just look at the graph and say it's dipping...you have to remember the share you buy today is still lot expensive than 10 years ago.

As for risk....just fuck it, if they really were in trouble, you wouldn't know or have any contacts to get the insider information....so it's a gamble.

Who's getting ready to load up on Euros ?

No it's not lol It's at a 14 year low! Do you realize that they adjust the charts when it splits?Without the splits, it would be $120.

Don't forget, BP is liable for a fine of $4300 per barrel released into the ocean. Today it was just admitted that the leak is closer to 40K barrels a day and eventually the true number of 100K barrels a day will be confirmed. At $4300 a barrel, that ads up really quick especially if the leak goes for several more months. I think the impact of these fines is what will push BP over the edge. It could be close to 50 billion in fines alone.

BTW, this is why BP has continuously said there is no way to measure the flow and they have no interest in doing so.

It's a risky play that could pay off big, the odds are against you on this one I think. But that's how the game works :)

exactly, post split price is more like $7.5, in pre-split terms :thumbsup

Oil Pollution Act:

"§1004 The liability for tank vessels larger than 3,000 gross tons is increased to $1,200 per gross ton or $10 million, whichever is greater. Responsible parties at onshore facilities and deepwater ports are liable for up to $350 millon per spill; holders of leases or permits for offshore facilities, except deepwater ports, are liable for up to $75 million per spill, plus removal costs. The Federal government has the authority to adjust, by regulation, the $350 million liability limit established for onshore facilities."

http://www.epa.gov/oem/content/lawsregs/opaover.htm

The government is certainly going to fight for more but current liability is $75 million.

I'm sure this will be argued by both sides, but according to Reuters, there is no limit on this specific type of penalty. It states the clause is located "deep" within the text so it may not be shown in overviews.


http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64O75Q20100526

Man, ya'll gonna get cleaned.. Place your bets..

out the window :Oh crap

OP, do you keep all that gold or just got some papers that you own it?

When there's blood in the streets ... BUY!

Anyone reckon it will dip after the weekend?

and GM's bankruptcy was in who's best interest?

GM wiped out a lot of debt and their common shareholders and came out of bankruptcy with a 1st quarter 3 billion dollar profit...

it sounds like you based your comment without really understanding what chapter 11 re org is.... :2 cents:





.

BP Cancels Dividend Payments, Plans to Sell Assets

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-update1-.html

That's close enough for a prediction considering it was around $600 when he made it. :2 cents:


That doesn't mean much. They make billions of dollars every quarter. They will be back on their feet as if nothing happened within 2 years.

Anyone who thinks BP is going under is an idiot.
Theay are "Too big to Fail".

Im buying

I keep an 80/20 rule with any precious metals. 80% I physically have, 20% paper. That 20% allows me quick trades. This method may not work for everyone but it works great for me.

It's not just gold, I also have an enormous stockpile of seeds, wheat, whole grains and some other bulk foods. I should take a photo and show you, you would fall over laughing. Imagine a rooms the size of a 2 car garage almost totally filled with 6-gallon storage buckets full of this. Maybe a bit obsessive but I believe in the event of a true global or even domestic collapse, my food supply and seeds are going to be worth more than any amount of metal I may have. I also have a well with a hand pump and a good water filter. I consider myself a survivalist and enjoy the aspect of preparation and educating others on it.

If you are limited in space or live in an urban environment, Google "Depression Garden" and see what you can grow in a small area. You'd be surprised.

I can even teach you how to fortify your home, how to do little things to make it more secure to stop those who want what you have. How to defend your home and protect you family. Lots of things you can do. Been thinking of writing a survival ebook but I don't think there is enough interest in the subject just yet.

BP will not go under. Whatever amount they are forced to pay is peanuts to what they earn in a year.

OK this was funny. I give you credit

The downside potential is far bigger than the upside. No way BP is going to snap back any time soon. On the upside you would be limited to 20 or 30% as I see it. Puts to the downside of 10$ or so can make you a fortune when the company files for bankruptcy on the other hand.

No thanks. People think this is just another Exxon. Wrong!

The book value is $30+ for christ sake, it aint going BKrupt.

When fear is at its peak, that's the time to buy. This company is solid, look beyond this one event.

I remember seeing 2010 earnings estimates around 20-30 bil., and this escrow will be paid into slowly. Plus they don't plan on paying dividends until 2011.
It's trading at a 4 PE atm!

It is a falling knife, but daily and hourly technicals have turned. Looking for a big enough bounce to turn the weekly and monthly charts!

disclaimer: Bought 1,000 shares at $30.50 last night, stop set at $30.63. At this point, can't lose 8^)

Good luck to everyone whos holding long, and I hope everyone who's effected by this gets a fat chunk of that 20 bil.

You guys need to stop watching the media on this. They are not going under. Not gonna happen. Turn off the TV and do your own research on the company and how much money they have and earn every quarter. They print money.

If you are only relying on the media for your info, you are only getting a very small percent of what is going on.

I bought 10,000 shares at $29.00. Right now it's $32 and raising. It will probably drop a few more times but then its going up up up up away.

You guys are missing the boat.

LOL

you are going to go broke

No you are going to miss out. :2 cents:

I could sell right now with an already made a profit of 30k. It may drop again after the CEO gets grilled today but it will come back up. It will be a slow and steady growth and within 2 years or less, it will be back where it was.

That's bs dude, chances that you happen to buy at the 52 week low is like one in a million
It's a good stock, worth buying even now at 32, but why bullshit people like that? :helpme

For starters, it was no surprise that it was dropping. I didn't need CNN to tell me that their stock was going to fall.

That's how the game is played dood. This is how I make my money. Been watching BP stock since the DAY the rig exploded. If someone is a serious player in this game they watch everything, this is how to know when to buy and sell. THAT is how the game is played. I watch my picks DAILY, several times a day. I read about 20 different news sources daily as well. That is part of the gig.

Just because I post on a sex board you think it's impossible for me to buy when they were at an all time low? More like because we are on a sex board is why you think in that manner.

It could be that you post on a sex board, or maybe it's because your name is Mr. Cool Ice, or maybe it's because you use Mr. Cool Ice's picture in your avatar, or it could be that you store up seeds and crap because you think the Country is going to fail which makes you crazy.

Just saying... I would guess people have several reasons to think you're bullshitting. Maybe take some pictures of yourself next to your gold and seeds, then people probably wouldn't think it was impossible.

please post a picture of this. Its sounds amazing

Yeah, he shot himself in the foot right there. No fucking way he caught it at the low.

When BP is at $10 bucks a share by the end of the summer and this gets bumped, he'll say he dumped it at $31 and made a $20k dollar profit :1orglaugh

My dad picked some up that low. Old bastard won't stop talking about it, but that's how he makes his living.

I don't see what the big deal is. Those who watch the markets around the clock do this sort of thing. You do realize their are online resources that tracks stocks minute by minute don't you?

I read a post from the OP when gold was around 600 and he said it was probably gonna hit 1500. Almost everyone LOLd and now it's pushing 1300. Some people get it, some don't. I'm not one who does but I've watched my dad make insane amounts of money (and lose a lot too). The way he explained it to me is that when you play with large numbers you don't need enormousness fluctuations to make a big profit, or a loss.

Again I don't see the problem. If he dumps it and makes 20,000 dollars, whats the deal? Isn't that the idea? Or are you guys so painted into a corner of porn failure and small change that you can't comprehend true success?

Don't understand haters when someone is trying to help them make money. Very strange thing.

It's not really that hard to catch a stock on it's 52 week low. Most people following a stock make more than one purchase, so sure you bought on the low, but maybe you averaged down.. And honestly, it's not that hard, especially during a crisis.. I did it at least twice last year thanks to March '09s epic shitness, I did it again a month ago during the Thai crisis.
Also on this occasion 29 is a psychological barrier having just broken 30 into the "20's". It's one of those "$1.99 isn't $2" things. You might think that's silly but when people are selling you very often see incredible depths on the round figures, that might be 2c on a 1.8c share moving up or 20 on an 18 dollar share. People don't like to sell for 29 because it's not $30, conversely they like to buy at 29 because it's not $30. It's only a slight tendency but I can completely believe that someone that might have been holding off buying (or averaging down) through to mid to low 30's would finally hit the trigger on on $29... Also, maybe there was massive and building support at 28/29 and sellers getting thin at 30 and it looked like things were turning around? *shrugs* Finally, you make enough trades and you're going to get lucky. If you've never traded before and you buy one stock at it's yearly low and never buy another again, fine, thats pretty good, but what does your average investor (as opposed to day trader) do a year.. 20-50 trades? A broken clock is right twice a day, if you don't buy on a yearly low at least once every 5 years you're probably not doing enough trades ;)

the UK share price is currently up 11% on Wednesday's price.