Originally Posted by raymor (Post 17234712)

I see you've been watching Michael Moore. I can tell because virtually every word of that sentence
show a different misunderstanding fostered by Moore and his crew..

What's funny, and what really betrays the fact you've watching too many Michael Moore films,
which he eventually had to admit are "fiction", is your mention of " their insane margins".
The oil industry has one of the lowest profit margins of all industries. DP, specifically, had a
profit margin of 7.6% last period. To put that into terms you can understand, that's the same
as if you sold $100 of memberships and had a $92.40 hosting bill. That's like if your site brought
in $10,000 / month, but after paying for content, hosting, etc. you brought home just $760
for the month. They actually have very low profit margins, and when you add in those years
where they LOSE billions, like BP will this year, it's even slimmer. It's like if you got hacked
every ten years or so and had to pay your customers $1,000,000 because their information
was leaked. Offset against the slim margins in normal years, it's not really a great business.

It is an EXPENSIVE business - they pay $400 million dollars to build a deep sea rig and HOPE
that it will provide $450 million in oil. If, as often happens, it only produces $300 million, they are
out $100 million.

Originally Posted by leedsfan (Post 17234804)

are you kidding? I don't know what theories you think I believe in, but certainly Illuminati conspiracy theories are not among them.

The USD is not as strong as it used to be and this is a common known fact.

Yes, gold is also important, but do you seriously think the world can feasibly transact with gold bullion? The answer is no, plain and simple. It is obviously unwieldy and impractical as a global currency. Who's going to head down the bank with a wheel barrow of gold to buy a new house?

Do I believe that some influential policy makers and big business owners (example: Fed Reserve owners) would like a more centralized command center for global policy and management? Yes, why wouldn't they? It is clear that nation states aren't stable enough to provide the platform for a centralized agenda to manage markets and interest rates in a way that maximizes profits for big business, and big business is run by a smaller number of people year on year. Having that single centralized currency means total dominance over world markets and therefore the predictability to monetize projects that require stability, such as long term oil projects, or restructuring the Middle East after Iran is invaded.

Originally Posted by RummyBoy (Post 17235403)

Dont forget one risk factors.... no-one knows the actual cost. Also, if the global economy double dibs, oil prices can fall, although we are at a low point and demand should outstrip supply on these obama restrictions.

On the other hand, if you buy sub-$30/share and the dividend returns to where it was before, youll be earning over 10% gross yield per annum (ie > 10% of your investment every year). You'll be paid to wait for it to recover.

Originally Posted by cykoe6 (Post 17235717)

BP is a very risky play. Matt Simmons is very smart. If he says BP will declare Chapter 11 then I would short BP.

Originally Posted by cykoe6 (Post 17235717)

BP is a very risky play. Matt Simmons is very smart. If he says BP will declare Chapter 11 then I would short BP.

Originally Posted by marketsmart (Post 17235947)

yes, this is what i believe will happen if the lawsuits and cleanup get too costly...

chap 11 re org would be perfect way for bp to get out of this...

.

Originally Posted by woj (Post 17235969)

They will recover from it eventually, all while earning 10%+/year from dividends... risk is substantial, but around 30/share it's a great buy, one of the best money making opportunities I've seen in a while...

Originally Posted by crazytrini85 (Post 17233919)

I just searched your name and saw some of the things you said a year or more ago:



Yup. :thumbsup



Not quite, but close enough. :thumbsup

Regarding AIG stock at $1:



Good call. :thumbsup

You have a crystal ball or something?

Originally Posted by Titan (Post 17235311)

The best time to buy stock is when EVERYONE is telling you not to. If randoms start telling you to short stock you should buy buy buy. Stock prices are always based on the future. BP's future losses are already built into today's stock price. If you think BP will lose less than 80 Billion dollars on this spill you should buy. Now China and a bunch of other people are saying to buy which means it already may be too late. I just checked the stock price and its up 11% today. Should have bought yesterday like I did.

Originally Posted by neonlights (Post 17236503)

Don't forget this stock has split 4 fucking times already....you can't just look at the graph and say it's dipping...you have to remember the share you buy today is still lot expensive than 10 years ago.

Originally Posted by Houdini (Post 17236518)

No it's not lol It's at a 14 year low! Do you realize that they adjust the charts when it splits?Without the splits, it would be $120.

Originally Posted by mynameisjim (Post 17236629)

Don't forget, BP is liable for a fine of $4300 per barrel released into the ocean. Today it was just admitted that the leak is closer to 40K barrels a day and eventually the true number of 100K barrels a day will be confirmed. At $4300 a barrel, that ads up really quick especially if the leak goes for several more months. I think the impact of these fines is what will push BP over the edge. It could be close to 50 billion in fines alone.

BTW, this is why BP has continuously said there is no way to measure the flow and they have no interest in doing so.

It's a risky play that could pay off big, the odds are against you on this one I think. But that's how the game works :)

Originally Posted by Houdini (Post 17236701)

Oil Pollution Act:

"§1004 The liability for tank vessels larger than 3,000 gross tons is increased to $1,200 per gross ton or $10 million, whichever is greater. Responsible parties at onshore facilities and deepwater ports are liable for up to $350 millon per spill; holders of leases or permits for offshore facilities, except deepwater ports, are liable for up to $75 million per spill, plus removal costs. The Federal government has the authority to adjust, by regulation, the $350 million liability limit established for onshore facilities."

http://www.epa.gov/oem/content/lawsregs/opaover.htm

The government is certainly going to fight for more but current liability is $75 million.

Originally Posted by mattz (Post 17235365)

I just dropped 5 k

Originally Posted by woj (Post 17235990)

Bankruptcy isn't happening... it's obviously in no one's best interest to force them into bankruptcy... even if the costs add up to gazillions of dollars, it will get spread out over next 100 years... :2 cents:

Originally Posted by GatorB (Post 17236017)

Close enough? Excuse me but $1200 is like 20% off of $1500. Not exactly "close"

Originally Posted by onwebcam (Post 17254020)

BP Cancels Dividend Payments, Plans to Sell Assets

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-update1-.html