can you say enron?

With yesterday's sell-off of BP shares taking the stock about 10% lower, the shares are now trading at a price not seen this century. The suspension of the dividend, of course, makes the stock unattractive to income investors, but beyond that, there are more than enough people around who are primarily interested in punishing the company. After all, BP has become the boogeyman of the day, an easy target for activists and comedians alike.

But investors need to take a more logical approach, as well as a long-term view. Obviously, this won't be an income stock for some time. But when you consider its earnings potential in the decades ahead, it's clear that the restoration of the dividend, albeit at a lower level, won't be too many years away. And like ExxonMobil (XOM) after the Exxon Valdez incident, the company (and the stock) will eventually rebound.

The current market capitalization is just under $90 million, down about 50%. So it has taken a $90 billion haircut, placed $20 billion in escrow, suspended its $10 billion per year dividend, and may well have to cut back on its annual capital spending of $30 billion. Add to that the crude oil that it's losing on a minute-by-minute basis, and it's clear that the company will be hurting for some time. Hasn't it suffered enough?

The popular image of Tony Hayward as an uncaring playboy yachtsman is a focal point for many critics, but the fact is that the company employs tens of thousands of people both here and abroad, and the chances are pretty good that they care very deeply about what's happening. We shouldn't punish them for the poor people skills of Mr. Hayward nor for the oil spill in general, since it was, after all, an accident.

A Sleeper Investment?

So what about BP stock now? Is it a buy? That's the question some are asking, but the real question should be: When is it a buy? Eventually, when the flow of oil is stopped and the claims are paid off, BP's profitable business model will kick in and the stock will become attractive again. That could be years away, especially when you factor in all the court cases we're likely to see. But like Exxon after the incident in Alaska, the company will likely fare much better than many assume. If we wait for that to become clear, it will be too late.

My guess...and that's all that it is...is that buying the stock now that it's below $30 will prove to have been a wise decision in retrospect. We'll have to be patient, but that's the way it is with sleeper stocks. (You definitely could label BP a speculative buy, of course. I would not be surprised if the company chooses to give Mr. Hayward his walking papers, nor would it surprise me if that event triggered a nice little rally. Then he can play with his yacht all he wants.

Disclosure: No position at this time

^^Good Post.

Bottom line is this; There are far too many good stocks out there to invest your money in. If you're going to gamble by putting your money in BP, the smart bet would be to short the shit out of it 'cause this thing is going down near term.

I have bought 550 shares at 34$

and bought around 600 more at 27.5 a few minutes ago...

And it's 27.13 now, allready making a loss :upsidedow

drop baby drop. get ready for the second dip.

dont try to catch a falling knife.

WIth the hurricane season coming up....... this should be awesome to watch.
Is it basketball season also?

BP could (possibly) go under $20 with all this storm shit going on.

What site do you use to follow the BP stock?

BP can't borrow money at the moment and they need to raise cash to cover their asses. Nobody will give them a loan at reasonable conditions. That's why their stock goes down. They won't be able to raise cash. Their only hope are large sovereign funds.

I think the stock will go be a bargain below 10 bucks.

Paul's point seems to me to be the most likely. They are very well posed for a hostile takeover at the moment and even if things did get worse for them, I don't see them ever going away completely, they will just be acquired.

What site do you guys recommend for buying stocks online for investors? Minimal trades.

charles schwab is still pretty cheap, infact i think they reduced their rates recently

Last time I to GFY stock advice I bought 2000 share of Playboy stock @.99, now it's over $4.00:thumbsup

Here's some of the popular brokers with trade fees and account minimums.

Charles Schwab $12.95 $1,000
E*Trade $6.99 (1500+ trades) - $12.99 (0-29 trades) $1,000
Scottrade $7.00 all trades $500
TD Ameritrade $9.99 $2000

Very unlikely. Who would want to purchase a totally damaged brand? It's only interesting to buy if it gets very cheap .... 5 or 10 bucks or so. Then there is significant upside potential. At 27$ the downside risk is far bigger than the upside potential.

Technically, the chart is broken and the selling pressure remains very strong as pension funds gave up on BP.

instead of bp, buy HAL

it's involved they bought boots and coots - research it

:2 cents:

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/US/06/25...id=lQSQ6lg4i2n

http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/201...rss-topstories

I've spent about a quarter of my life living in southern Florida and experienced a few hurricanes. My biggest worry is what if and what would the impact be if the Gulf was slammed with a category 4 or 5 hurricane? With hurricane Katrina that hit New Orleans a few years ago... The tidal/storm surge was well over 20 feet in height and pushed inland nearly 15 miles; We all saw the pictures on tv.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_surge

The point I'm trying to get to is... If this nightmare scenario occurs and a hurricane were to carry oil inland over a wide swath of land, not only it would be a ecological disaster, but truly do not see how BP could financially afford to cover such massive clean-up costs.

A hurricane could move the slick toward the coast and a storm surge or hurricane force winds could carry the oil inland, producing an even greater disaster than either a hurricane or oil slick alone. A hurricane or tropical storm in the Gulf would also impede the efforts to contain the leak and the slick. Some have even speculated that the oil slick may inhibit the formation of hurricanes in the Gulf by forming a barrier between the air and the water. Once a hurricane has formed, however, the slick would not affect its intensity or track. Another positive effect of a hurricane may be that the churning waves would hasten degradation of the oil by disbursing it.

Unfortunately, the chances that a hurricane will hit the oil spill are fairly good. Hurricanes in the early part of hurricane season historically develop in the Gulf region, whereas later hurricanes form in the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, hurricane forecasters from the Colorado State University predict that the chances that a hurricane will enter the Gulf of Mexico this year are 44%, higher than the historic average of 30%.

I'm certainly not trying to be doom & gloom nor negative, but there are so many unknowns. This oil disaster is bad enough on it's own... But bloody hell if the "Perfect Storm" hits that region and carries the oil inland, what a mess! Not only it will devastate the environment, but everything will be covered in oil. i.e. houses, cars, buildings, phone boxes, buses etc... I think you see the point I'm trying to get across. Who and how would this be cleaned up. This would effect the everyday life of people and potentially in extreme cases, could make some areas un-inhabitable until it was cleaned up due to the health risks... Toxins, fumes....

it will go below $20

I won't be touching this one. You got more balls than me i guess. My advice is to really think twice before laying down a couple of k's

I would wait unti 19-20$ to buy. It will hit that lower in the next month.

buy at $11

LOL people need to stick to what they know best ... posting boobies on the net with link codes.

Still waiting for its low. I rather bought FNM at 40 cents.

Sure but what if Exxonmobil thinks its fair value at $20 ?

Shouldnt you purchase before the takeover?

I wouldn't even buy BP in the single digits, way too volatile. Might as well invest in penny stocks.

do you really think they will come back from it?

you guys are out of your minds if you think it will get to $11 :1orglaugh

it's already trading way below book value as is... :2 cents:

Problem is, we don't know what the liability side of the ledger is. The assets are there, but how hard are they going to be hit with cleanup costs, fines and liable suits. I would think BP as we know it is dead in 18 months... meaning stock holders get doodle y shit. Anyone seriously considering this stock should think of it as a bet on a footbal game and not an investment.

I haven't ready this thread (lolz way too lazy) but I hope the people that are buying BP stock currently understand the crisis that is peak oil. Save your money. Trust me.

Edit; well now that I think about it peak oil could possibly benefit BP in regards to stocks, but eventually it will crumble (less than 20 years if I had to guess). I guess its too soon to really know. :)

Peak oil was being debated 20 years ago and guess what happened in that time?

BP stock is pushing through new lows today.

Wahahahahahahahahaha!

Mr Ice are you still holding?

I bought a ton at 29.79 and dropped 1/2 of what I was holding on the 12th at 33.97 by luck right before it took a nose dive. Pure luck.

Was able to cover my investment and make a little profit on that so when it dropped even more I picked up some up again on the 16th at 29.94. I'm going to leave the rest in and ride it out. I'll pick up more if it hits $25 but as of now I'm going to consider this a long term investment and focus on other trades. It's going to be a while before this goes back up to where it needs to go, but it will go I am sure.

this will go up in future, must be when oil hit historical biggest price on world :)

errr edit nevermind.

I know it sounds crazy this company could go belly up but let's remember lehman bear sterns etc

Peak oil, lol. They have been preaching that for 25 yrs now.:error