We're gonna see some popular programs out of the biz in the second part of this year.
 

Just sit and watch. I dont wish this to anyone but from what I've seen recently, its obvious. This industry is in need for new ideas... and i am not fucking talking about your new "just released" &#$#*#cash.com program.

who are you talking about then ?

talking about all. general trend.

Maybe..
I suppose with the decline of affiliates. The middle management, support, accounting and affiliate mangers will be hit hardest, You can run a business on very few staff, if you're only doing a few large traffic deals, and dealing program to program.

most will be closed coz the people are not buying normall stuff anymore

I think it's already happened to an extent. Most sites aren't updating anymore. Lot of affiliate programs have cut back on their staff and many aren't even responding to support e-mails. There isn't a need to go out of business, just go barebones and get what you can out of the people sending you traffic.

Agreed.

:pimp

Very true. This is exactly why most affiliates are fucked in a long run. I recall a time when we promoted only 4-5 programs which made us a fortune. That is what we are going to see again, the problem is that I am seeing very few SERIOUS programs that can make money in the long run at this point. I know many agree.

Being a Program owner,

are you seeing drops in sales?

and how many affiliates do you have now that are promoting compared to 1 year ago?

Obviously if you don't want to answer them questions I can understand why.

I think we all see a huge drop in sales.

I agree but I say good riddance to bad rubbish.
There are far too many average / poor sites out there
who have been treating the poor surfer like a moron
for far too long. No wonder affiliates earnings are dropping
thro the floor. The product they have to work is crap. The
vast majority of porn sites are a load of rubbish.
Sadly i'm an affiliate of a well known cam site who haven't
bothered to update their webmasters front page for 14 months.
Add that to the poor quality cams and its no wonder surfers aren't
signing up. The big monolith websites have had their day and
are now old-school. Its time for fresh ideas...

again, very true.

And i think it's time to turn some thing around. Instead of trial and error, shaving, stolen rebills and things like that, webmasters should really take care about who they promote and why. We are planning to offer more ads on our sites instead (direct brokering) instead of going trough unlimited circles of trial and error with sponsors. We send a lot of great traffic to shitty sponsors for years and I thing the time has came for a change. You have a new great program? We have traffic? Well pay and try your program. People should start putting their money where their mouth is.

One of the things I've been saying in the big argumentative threads about tubes and torrents was that as an affiliate it has pretty much killed my ability to make sales to the hundreds of programs I promote.

BUT, as a paysite owner...I can tell you that our type-in sales are higher than ever.

And as I stated back in the x-sell fights...I could see it happening. The review sites started exposing the affiliate business and explaining to surfers how it works. Freeones put up icons explaining x-sells etc. These were well intentioned things...but the results were that surfers now understand completely the affiliate business.

And just like I did over 13 years ago when my eyes were opened about affiliates and how it works...they started NOT clicking on links and instead either typing it in or going to a search engine.

I've been saying that for a few months now, and my stats re-confirm it everytime I look at Stats Remote.

Here's some of my worst ratios for you:
Fuck You Cash: 0:1284
Jug Cash: 0:2092
Naughty America: 0:2172
Nasty Dollars: 0:834

And the list goes on and on and on. I listed these 4 companies because before there were tubes and torrents I made hundreds of thousands of dollars with them. Do I think they are going out of business? No, these are great companies with awesome content. I'm theorizing that just like I'm seeing with Claudia-Marie.Com, they are getting the highest percentage of type-in traffic that they have ever experienced.

Does that equal as much revenue as 2 years ago? No, not at all. Claudia-Marie.Com revenue has lost 1/4 of it's revenue from a year ago. And when I speak with other program owners...they are giving me much worse figures on their end.

But not enough to shut down operations by any means for the majority.

As for us affiliates? I'm not coming close to making what I did as an affiliate from a year ago. Up until this year, my affiliate money has always grown each year.

In 2008 I made $539,278.77 with my affiliate work (keep in mind that is from being a pretty major affiliate since 1997 so I have a lot of cookies and a lot of rebills). That was the first year that I didn't really grow, because in 2007 I made $521,475.75 so I pretty much went sideways.

But this year? Holy shit! Affiliate work isn't paying at all. I've lost most of my traffic to the tubes and torrents of course. And according to Stats Remote's forecast I'm on track to only make $316,731.37 for 2009!!! I don't care who you are...dropping over $200,000.00 in a single year is HUGE.

Perfect storm of the explosion of torrents and the surfer forums that literally have links up to every paysite on the planet ripped and waiting for free.

Yeah, it's hurting paysites. But it is KILLING affiliates. :(

a few things

surfers have harddrives full of porn, access to free porn and many other things, you either shoot crazy stuff that they dont have or cant find for free easily or dont shoot at all.

for now the industry will continue to decline there are only so many ways to shoot BG or GG with the same fucking model.

I am a program owner that has more exclusive content than most and I dont care saying it like it is, there has been a drop across the board and its the free porn that is killing it.

And yes the person who posted its time for something new is 100% right, there has been little innovation in this biz in the past 5 years.

I don't think affiliates are fucked, I just think the way we monetize traffic is changing. If you are able to acquire traffic in one way or another, you will be able to make some money on it. Maybe it won't be the old pay-per-signup methods and turn to a CPM based model (what we are seeing a lot of tubes do).

I think the changes make it more difficult for smaller affiliates and will definitely weed out the riff-raff, but that's not always a bad thing. This industry has been bloated for years now and could use some healthy contraction (programs and affiliates alike).

Ultimately though, if you are able to generate traffic, you'll be able to make money. That will not change.

Evolution is a bitch
in 300 years people are talking in histories classrooms about the term " webmasters " and trying to give it a meaning. That this will be a 2 minute lesson may be clear for us all

Unfortunately, I don't see anything "new" coming any time soon. I agree 100% that someone new needs to be done, but if no one has done it by now chances are that by the time it's actually done it will be to late. To many are just "riding the wave" and hoping that something will change. Well, it won't change unless something new and innovative comes out.

Lets hope that I'm wrong and we'll see something happen before the end of this year.

Thank you for being so candid :)

With the crap that does come out it's like Nintendo believing that the Wii has revolutionized game playing, but it did nothing close to that. So just like most of the crap that comes out as "new" and it will "change the porn industry and make it better" is nothing more than porn's version of the Wii. All hype and nothing nore.

Okies.
Spam time.


ya know... you could all just throw 1800 numbers up on your galleries and tubes.. and hope for a little extra cash :)


/spam.

i agree things move quick too quick and noone wants to understand that

Uh.
The Wii got chicks back into gaming.
WalMarts can't keep WiiFits on their shelves.
The Wii brought them an ASSLOAD of dollars..


It just didn't please the gamer nerds.

pretty much man. it's wasteland out there.

I don't understand why GenBucks is dead :?

yes, BUT it's still not as advanced as they tried to make it out to be.. It may have sold, but it did nothing in terms of revolutionizing game playing. When they were making the Wii it was codenamed "Nintendo Revolution". When it finally came out I laughed. So whether it sold or not was not my point. My point is that it was nothing revolutionary..

It's like saying "New porn with full on screen interaction", but in reality all it is is a set # of commands/things you can do or say, but adds no actual fun or anything "revolutionary. We need something totally new that will make surfers want it like it's the air that they're breathing. Not a fad filled with hype, but no real value.

I'm a little tired today so if what I'm saying makes no sense I apologize.

Fuck revolutionizing.
Let's just create porn that sells again... even if it's too a whole new market... like the Wii was ;)

ok, lets make something that sells, but gotta make sure that it's not just regular porn with a small addition. haha

affiliates are a pain in the ass for most program owners, inhouse traffic generation is the key word, only whales and/or big Networks will survive, I am told

Who are some of the biggest programs out there now? Anyone know where I can find a list in terms of revenue?

we all know

Most paysites can probably weather the storm, assuming things stay as they are now and don't get much worse. Honestly, it is about as bad as it can be. Everything is stolen instantly and everyone knows about tube sites so I can't see it getting much worse. Despite what everyone thinks, porn buyers DO KNOW about tube sites, in fact, porn buyers are hardcore porn users and they probably knew about tube sites before you did. So the argument that only those surfers who haven't found tubes are still buying is false.

The affiliates, even large affiliates are being hurt the most by the tube sites.

Some affiliates have moved to dating but they'll get squeezed out of there soon enough. It's like rats climbing to the top of the mast as the ship sinks. Tube sites in the Alexa top 100 (sometimes top 50) are pushing the same couple dating sites as small affiliates. Meaning that everyone has been exposed to those ads and those sites already. You can only switch the names up so many times to keep getting decent ratios.

The only game changer is if tube sites run out of profitable sites/products to promote and they are forced to change their business model.

this could have been said in any year since 1996 and it would have been true.

;)

well, between all programs that could be dead by the end of the year I'd say yours is one of those on the safe side.

about new things... there's a lot of things that can be done within existing boundaries, including alternative income, new ways of delivering content, retention optimization, content optimization, rational cost reduction and so on. Adult business was one of the more adaptive businesses I've ever seen, now I see everybody looks stuck to the same old formulas, but I think many people is scared of the new economic trends and it's just a question of time before they realize new times calls for new ways of doing things.

Personally, I think most programs will be hit this year in one way or another, but I don't think most popular programs won't be able to cape the storm, one thing is winning less, another thing is losing.

Funny thing is I've made a post a couple weeks ago regarding optimization of retentions, smart content and conversions and most people laughed even without knowing anything about it (even when it was RESULT BASED!!!!!!). I went as far to defy someone from a huge program that I'd put my own money on it and he backed up, so I'd say that basically people is scared of anything new or different. Happily, some people is smarter than others, some people listened to what I have and from there some are in conversations right now. But the point is many programs are in deny, they look like petrified on current economic issues

i hear that is true everyday but i see programs everyday fighting harder for affiliates and giving away more and more for less affiliates.

how many programs are able to generate traffic and master seo? not more than a couple i'm afraid.

the affiliate model is going nowhere.

I recall being laughed at over the last year or two of me saying that exact thing. Takes people hitting the reality of it all for change to start happening I guess.

whales is a term that cant be used anymore

Maybe you are one of the ones who will be closed. I hope not tho.

i suppose this will mean more content blowouts and site catalogs up for sale. when this happens. email me :

terrence (@) elitedollars.com

its always ending and those that are worried about it are always willfully ignoring the fact that many are growing and thriving.

thank you oprah