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Old 06-01-2011, 01:47 PM   #1
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A full recovery won't occur until at least 2030

Dayum..... 2030?!?!

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By Ashley Powers and Alejandro Lazo, Los Angeles Times May 31, 2011

Reporting from North Las Vegas, Nev.? Charles Mills can barely afford to stay here. But he also can't afford to move.

That's why the 44-year-old heavy-equipment operator was preparing to leave his wife and young daughter here and go where he could find work ? the Oklahoma oil fields. Mills has a mortgage to pay, even if its size pains him.

He purchased his house in 2006 for $308,500. Current value: $105,797.

"We talked about it: What can we do with the house?" Mills said. "Nobody's going to buy it. Nobody's going to rent it. If we walk away, my credit's shot. We're stuck."

In some parts of North Las Vegas, more than 80% of homeowners have plunged "underwater," meaning they owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth ? a stunning concentration of aborted plans and upended lives.

Mobility in search of new opportunity has long been a cornerstone of the American economy, much the way homeownership has long offered a path to firmer financial footing. But the housing bust has left tens of thousands of homeowners across Nevada essentially trapped.

They're considered the new normal here. They turn down higher-paying jobs elsewhere because they can't move. They tidy the yards of houses left vacant by foreclosure. They realize it's unlikely their children will receive tidy inheritances from the sale of their suburban homes.

When they look about their neighborhood, they question things they never questioned before. Are dead plants a sign that someone forgot to water? Or did the water get turned off? Does a garage sale mean more neighbors are about to bail?

"We don't even walk around our own neighborhood anymore," Mills said. "Why? To say hi to strangers?"

Elsewhere on Midnight Breeze Street are Steve and Gay Shoaff, who once talked of selling their house and retiring somewhere pretty. Gay, 57, even toured a place in Wyoming.

But the Shoaffs have been living mostly off savings since the construction industry sputtered. Steve, 60, worked as a drywall taper and foreman.

"I'd say, 'Gay, we're going to become millionaires on this house,' " Steve recalled one day as he and his wife unwound in the backyard they'd spent thousands of dollars sprucing up. Gay mustered a smile.

Their $187,980 home is now assessed at $99,220.

"This house won't be worth what we paid on it until after we die," she said.

Some economists would agree, predicting that a full recovery in parts of the West's "foreclosure belt" ? California, Nevada and Arizona ? won't occur until at least 2030.

Nationwide, 23.1% of homeowners with mortgages are underwater. No state is more underwater than arid Nevada, with about two-thirds of borrowers holding such mortgages, according to CoreLogic, a Santa Ana research firm.

Some economists argue that, in a way, these homeowners are worse off financially than those who lost their houses through foreclosure and were forced to move on. Those borrowers often were able to live rent-free for years because of the snail's pace of foreclosure proceedings.

Meanwhile, their underwater neighbors poured money into mortgages, not savings or investments. They couldn't chase higher-paying work. Homeowners with negative equity are at least a third less mobile than other homeowners, according to a recent study in the Journal of Urban Economics.

But abandoning their homes was an option that appeared too dicey. "Walking away, it does wreck your credit history for a while and you can't get another mortgage for seven years," said Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate. Defaulting also makes it harder to rent an apartment. "The other thing is, there is also some sense of obligation to repay your bills," he said.
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Old 06-01-2011, 01:50 PM   #2
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someone said it was busy at an olive garden, can't be true.
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Old 06-01-2011, 01:54 PM   #3
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Dayum..... 2030?!?!



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Id believe it, but its because of the greed of the banks and those brokers.

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someone said it was busy at an olive garden, can't be true.
go there on a Sunday and it gets busy
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Old 06-01-2011, 01:57 PM   #4
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someone said it was busy at an olive garden, can't be true.
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Old 06-01-2011, 02:18 PM   #5
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the baby boomers have wrecked everything. No surprise the bounce will happen when they die.
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Old 06-01-2011, 02:18 PM   #6
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I don't believe it will take us until 2030 to recover, but people don't seem to understand how bad this is. We haven't seen this since the 1930s. I know dozens of people who have lost their homes.
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Old 06-01-2011, 02:29 PM   #7
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In my opinion - The Economy is correcting itself after a WILD housing bubble / lending bubble that offered anyone with a pulse more money than they could ever repay.

Combine that with "living on Plastic" lifestyles and the sense of entitlement that everyone had the God given right to live far beyond their means ...

I watched all of it over the last 10 years going " how can these people make $100k combined with 3 kids under 10 years old, have new high cars, a $650k house, great clothes and go on 3 vacations a year? "

All the while I made $125k a year, had a $100k house, no Credit cards / loans and paid cash for everything ... which now allows me to have a $500k home and STILL no loans, credit cards and only debt is utilities ....

Income has doubled thanks to my IT biz doing very well in the Corporate space. Alllowed me to splurge and pad the bank account for rainy days
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Old 06-01-2011, 02:33 PM   #8
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How about it will never recover? At least not "recover" back into what people remember. You said that yourself in another thread regarding software developers -- people in 2nd and 3rd world countries are under cutting developers in 1st world countries. Well, same goes for everyone and every industry.
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Old 06-01-2011, 02:38 PM   #9
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someone said it was busy at an olive garden, can't be true.
Come-on Barefootsies that's funny
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Old 06-01-2011, 03:09 PM   #10
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Well, same goes for everyone and every industry.
True dat. Survival of the fittest.
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Old 06-01-2011, 03:19 PM   #11
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This is what happens when you bail out companies. It prolongs the crash and recovery. We would have had a depression but would have been well on the way to a recovery now. Now we have decades of mediocre economies.
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Old 06-01-2011, 03:46 PM   #12
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It will never "recover". The economies we have had for the last 30+ years were an illusion, based on flawed business models, living off capital and loans, bubbles, and low-value consumption.

We americans have been living a lie for decades, and that lie is still crumbling underneath us.

It may transform into another type of economy which is not on life support, which is actually working well and growing without bubbles, but that seems unlikely by 2030.
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Old 06-01-2011, 03:48 PM   #13
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smash the banks and make a real productive economy that actually produces shit.
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Old 06-01-2011, 04:21 PM   #14
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Oh, I forgot to mention, the deferred tax increases made law by the republicans and the centrists. Those deferred tax increases are coming due right now, as we debate the debt ceiling. And we will be paying off the tax increases of the republicans for decades.

Our economies have not been paying their own costs for a long time. We've been having a party on deferred costs, capital, and loans.
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Old 06-01-2011, 04:36 PM   #15
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:mad

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Oh, I forgot to mention, the deferred tax increases made law by the republicans and the centrists. Those deferred tax increases are coming due right now, as we debate the debt ceiling. And we will be paying off the tax increases of the republicans for decades.

Our economies have not been paying their own costs for a long time. We've been having a party on deferred costs, capital, and loans.
You need to cut the military AND pentagon spending by 90%, eliminate many of the tax loop holes so those who should pay 35% actually ARE paying 35%, and then raise certain taxes on carbon energy. That alone would force change(s), while lowering the deficit.

It's hard to imagine 12+ years ago that Clinton had a government budge surplus, and since then, we are on the brink of collapse as a country financially. Fucking unreal.
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Old 06-01-2011, 04:37 PM   #16
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sure am glad we have enough money to attack more countries, have to have our priorities
Hey green techology is going to save us!!!!!
















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Carbon is not the problem, it makes up 0.041% of our atmosphere , 95% of that is from Volcanos and decomposing plants and stuff. So people in the US are responsible for 13% of the carbon in the atmosphere which 95% is not from Humans, like cars and trucks and stuff and they want to spend trillions to fix it while Solar Panel plants are powered by coal plants
think about that
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Old 06-01-2011, 04:41 PM   #17
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sure am glad we have enough money to attack more countries, have to have our priorities
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Old 06-01-2011, 04:46 PM   #18
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It's hard to imagine 12+ years ago that Clinton had a government budge surplus, and since then, we are on the brink of collapse as a country financially.
Is that true or creative accounting?

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Old 06-01-2011, 04:48 PM   #19
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Oh, I forgot to mention, the deferred tax increases made law by the republicans and the centrists. Those deferred tax increases are coming due right now, as we debate the debt ceiling. And we will be paying off the tax increases of the republicans for decades.

Our economies have not been paying their own costs for a long time. We've been having a party on deferred costs, capital, and loans.
Not sure I understand this - tax increases bring revenue in - how is that a bad thing when you are paying off huge debt?
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Old 06-01-2011, 04:54 PM   #20
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Is that true or creative accounting?

.
Creative accounting. Just like the dems did in my state. The governor ran for re-election based on the "fact" that we had this huge surplus. Well once the reps took control of the houses, they looked at the books and the "fact" was we were deep in the hole.

This is not a left/right problem, this is a big government problem. If the government was not so big, Bush could not have caused the economy to crash like he did (I dont think he single-handedly did it it took decades to come to a head) . Something totally missed by big government advocates.
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Old 06-01-2011, 04:57 PM   #21
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Not sure I understand this - tax increases bring revenue in - how is that a bad thing when you are paying off huge debt?
They were defered payment tax increases - we got the benefits of the tax increase, but defered paying it off.

It has to be paid off sometime.

That tax increase is the national debt, which has grown by trillions while we enjoyed the illusory economy of the last 30 years.

And which has to have it's legal ceiling increased, or, we have to pay it off, and we don't have the money or the economy that can pay that bill.
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Old 06-01-2011, 05:02 PM   #22
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You need to cut the military AND pentagon spending by 90%, eliminate many of the tax loop holes so those who should pay 35% actually ARE paying 35%, and then raise certain taxes on carbon energy. That alone would force change(s), while lowering the deficit.
That sounds like a possible plan altho 90% military cut in unrealistic, even tho as a libertarian I am philosophically oppsed to empire and wars of adventure, I recognize our empire has consequences, and if we cut 90% the blowback would be dangerous.

But 50%, sure.

The simple truth is there is no easy solution. What we did these last 30 years under republican and centrist (that is, neocon and neolib) rule ALSO has consequences.

What is coming is going to hurt like hell.
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Old 06-01-2011, 05:08 PM   #23
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The fact is we can not tax our way out of this. We need drastic cuts with small tax increase. The cuts in the government will actually promote growth in the private sector and the economy would get rolling again.

To think we can tax and spend our way out of this is insanity. Like a big wall street friend of mine a big time democrat, who vote for Obama said, "This guy has no fucking clue what he is doing"
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Old 06-01-2011, 05:09 PM   #24
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Not sure I understand this - tax increases bring revenue in - how is that a bad thing when you are paying off huge debt?
Just to make sure "defered tax increase" is understood correctly:

The reoublicans actually raised taxes every time they claimed to lower them these last 30 years.

What they did was lower tax collections, while keeping spending the same or increasing it dramatically.

Then they borrowed money to cover the gap.

The centrists (Clinton and Obama) did much the same. Clinton's appearance of budget success was an illusion, based on bubbles and the beginning of "free trade", with it's early benefits and deferred costs, just as Bush the lesser appeared to benefit for a while because of the war bubble, the lending bubble, and the housing bubble.

When you lower collections, and borrow the money that would have been collected, you have RAISED taxes, because the borowed money has to be paid back with interest.

It's a defered tax increase. You get the benefit of tax increases but pay for them later. And whoever loaned the country money gets to skim cream off the top.
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Old 06-01-2011, 05:18 PM   #25
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End the Fed.
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Old 06-01-2011, 05:23 PM   #26
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No need to argue "A" points guys and girls.
THE point is that the economy is scripted by the parasitical elite.
Keep talking about more taxation on the slaves and cuts in spending; Won't solve one thing.
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Old 06-01-2011, 05:30 PM   #27
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90% military cut in unrealistic
I think it could be easily done.

First of all...we don't need to occupy Germany anymore. We won that war back in 1945.

Same with Japan.

And then the more than ONE HUNDRED FIFTY other countries we have troops deployed in!

People don't realize that we have troops in over 150 countries! Could you imagine if another country had troops in OUR nation?

We ain't always "the good guys"

Let's leave other countries alone and stop invading them and taking them over. It isn't making us any money. It ain't like the ancient times where we plunder all the gold and take all the women.
No, it just costs hundreds of billions of taxpayer money.

Bring all the troops home. And let us KEEP our own damn money. Fuck the govt. They will always find ways to spend more and more money since they don't earn it. They just TAKE it from us.
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Old 06-01-2011, 05:43 PM   #28
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I think it could be easily done.

Bring all the troops home. And let us KEEP our own damn money. Fuck the govt. They will always find ways to spend more and more money since they don't earn it. They just TAKE it from us.
I didn't say it wasn't technically possible.

It's not politically or economically or strategically realistic.

The war/terror bubble is one of the last Bush era bubbles still working. Politicians won't touch it.

Last edited by Bill8; 06-01-2011 at 05:45 PM..
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Old 06-01-2011, 06:43 PM   #29
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In other words, our leaders failed us.
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Old 06-01-2011, 06:55 PM   #30
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our current economic situation can be blamed on only one thing... BANKS...

the banks fleeced our entire nation by creating the biggest bubble we have ever seen...

they used the deregulation of both republican and democrat administrations to make money when the housing market was going up and made a killing when the market collapsed..

it still amazes me that less then a handful went to jail when the big bank CEO's made trillions on the backs of stupid american blue collar workers...





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Old 06-01-2011, 07:39 PM   #31
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I think it could be easily done.

First of all...we don't need to occupy Germany anymore. We won that war back in 1945.

Same with Japan.

And then the more than ONE HUNDRED FIFTY other countries we have troops deployed in!

People don't realize that we have troops in over 150 countries! Could you imagine if another country had troops in OUR nation?

We ain't always "the good guys"

Let's leave other countries alone and stop invading them and taking them over. It isn't making us any money. It ain't like the ancient times where we plunder all the gold and take all the women.
No, it just costs hundreds of billions of taxpayer money.

Bring all the troops home. And let us KEEP our own damn money. Fuck the govt. They will always find ways to spend more and more money since they don't earn it. They just TAKE it from us.
Germany has a history of aggression in Europe but we aren't really there because of that, we are there because of the Russians.

We are in Japan due to the ongoing Godzilla threat which our combined forces have yet to effectively counter. It's going to be some time before that happens.

I agree with your sentiment however and I really don't think we need bases all over the world.
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Old 06-01-2011, 07:45 PM   #32
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Germany has a history of aggression in Europe but we aren't really there because of that, we are there because of the Russians.

We are in Japan due to the ongoing Godzilla threat which our combined forces have yet to effectively counter. It's going to be some time before that happens.

I agree with your sentiment however and I really don't think we need bases all over the world.
Heh-heh the Godzilla threat is something to worry about.

I was watching Bill Maher a few months ago and he said something about Germany like this:
We need to have our troops in Germany just in case the Soviet Union attacks in 1950
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Old 06-01-2011, 08:04 PM   #33
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Somebody else posted this in another gfy thread but it applies here.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43236764

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"Interest rates are amazingly low and that, thanks to Ben Bernanke, is driving everything," Yastrow said. "We?re on the verge of a great, great depression. The [Federal Reserve] knows it.

"We have many, many homeowners that are totally underwater here and cannot get out from under. The technology frontier is limited right now. We definitely have an innovation slowdown and the economy?s gonna suffer."

However, he said he wouldn?t sell stocks.

"Any bears out there better be careful because the dividend yields on these stocks look awesome relative to all the other investment vehicles out there," Yastrow said. "So bears are going to have to find a new way to express their discontent with the U.S. economy."
link blatantly stolen from this thread: https://gfy.com/showthread.php?t=1024990
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Old 06-01-2011, 08:44 PM   #34
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Just to make sure "defered tax increase" is understood correctly:

The reoublicans actually raised taxes every time they claimed to lower them these last 30 years.

What they did was lower tax collections, while keeping spending the same or increasing it dramatically.

Then they borrowed money to cover the gap.

The centrists (Clinton and Obama) did much the same. Clinton's appearance of budget success was an illusion, based on bubbles and the beginning of "free trade", with it's early benefits and deferred costs, just as Bush the lesser appeared to benefit for a while because of the war bubble, the lending bubble, and the housing bubble.

When you lower collections, and borrow the money that would have been collected, you have RAISED taxes, because the borowed money has to be paid back with interest.

It's a defered tax increase. You get the benefit of tax increases but pay for them later. And whoever loaned the country money gets to skim cream off the top.
thanks, good explanation
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Old 06-01-2011, 08:59 PM   #35
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thanks, good explanation
The great irony and great tragedy of the last 3 decades is that the american people have been too dumb and too frightened to do 5th grade math.

We let the republicans lie to us about lowering taxes without ever doing the arithmetic.

The media is partly to blame, but we americans were ultimately responsible, we will pay the bills, not the media corporations or the retired and dead politicians.

We did this to ourselves.

I can't blame the republicans - it's their mandate to lie to us. Same with the democrats. We, the people, mandated that they lie.
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Old 06-01-2011, 09:04 PM   #36
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I'll be 39 then if i don't die.
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Old 06-01-2011, 09:31 PM   #37
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the idea of resetting the world's economy makes sense to me - here is one thing that is true, we are the same people, the same population size,the same skills and education, the same infrastructure, that we were BEFORE the economic crisis. so what happened - we know what happened and why. All debt, foreign, national, corporate, personal/mortgage needs to be re-negotiated for the good of all. Fuck the banks, fuck Wall Street, all those who raped the economy under the noses of irresponsible politicians and their appointees. Those hundreds of thousands of homes with under water mortgages - fuck the banks, the house is worth half the value, the value of the mortgage should be cut in half. US owes billions to China, what's China going to do about it, attack militarily to collect it? Renegotiate all the debt all over the world.

If you divide the US debt by the number of households it's a staggering amount that each household owes - it's ludicrous because other than the wealthy no household could come close to paying its share of the national debt. It just keeps getting passed on to the next generation, it can never be paid off - if living within your means you don't spend a dime more than you take in - wow, people would revolt because the standard of living would be so low for the vast majority of people.

Healthcare costs are out of control and will continue to grow and grow as the baby boomers age, I don't think you need socialized medicine - what you need is to put wage and price controls on that industry, the government wouldn't run the system, all it would do is regulate the costs/profits - it is too important an industry to be treated like other industries. It's the tail that wags the dog of the economy. Fuck that, people are supposed to go into healthcare/medicine because they want to help people, not to get filthy rich. Drug companies lobby and blackmail all of us with this bogus argument about how much money goes into research and testing a new drug and that justifies insane amounts of money we all pay for drugs. It's bullshit, call their bluff, there will still be plenty of drugs developed, good drugs not bullshit drugs like Ritalin and half the anti-depressants on the market which exist because the drug companies and the doctors manufacture diseases and diagnosies(sp?) together they know have the potential for obscene profits.

Think Dr. Banting and Dr. Best who discovered insulin were looking to become billionaires?
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Old 06-01-2011, 09:34 PM   #38
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the idea of resetting the world's economy makes sense to me -
was thinking the same thing. it will never "work itself out."
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Old 06-01-2011, 10:10 PM   #39
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the idea of resetting the world's economy makes sense to me-
That's probably the only realistic solution.
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Old 06-01-2011, 10:16 PM   #40
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the idea of resetting the world's economy makes sense to me - here is one thing that is true, we are the same people, the same population size,the same skills and education, the same infrastructure, that we were BEFORE the economic crisis. so what happened - we know what happened and why. All debt, foreign, national, corporate, personal/mortgage needs to be re-negotiated for the good of all. Fuck the banks, fuck Wall Street, all those who raped the economy under the noses of irresponsible politicians and their appointees. Those hundreds of thousands of homes with under water mortgages - fuck the banks, the house is worth half the value, the value of the mortgage should be cut in half. US owes billions to China, what's China going to do about it, attack militarily to collect it? Renegotiate all the debt all over the world.

If you divide the US debt by the number of households it's a staggering amount that each household owes - it's ludicrous because other than the wealthy no household could come close to paying its share of the national debt. It just keeps getting passed on to the next generation, it can never be paid off - if living within your means you don't spend a dime more than you take in - wow, people would revolt because the standard of living would be so low for the vast majority of people.

Healthcare costs are out of control and will continue to grow and grow as the baby boomers age, I don't think you need socialized medicine - what you need is to put wage and price controls on that industry, the government wouldn't run the system, all it would do is regulate the costs/profits - it is too important an industry to be treated like other industries. It's the tail that wags the dog of the economy. Fuck that, people are supposed to go into healthcare/medicine because they want to help people, not to get filthy rich. Drug companies lobby and blackmail all of us with this bogus argument about how much money goes into research and testing a new drug and that justifies insane amounts of money we all pay for drugs. It's bullshit, call their bluff, there will still be plenty of drugs developed, good drugs not bullshit drugs like Ritalin and half the anti-depressants on the market which exist because the drug companies and the doctors manufacture diseases and diagnosies(sp?) together they know have the potential for obscene profits.

Think Dr. Banting and Dr. Best who discovered insulin were looking to become billionaires?
End the Fed
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Old 06-01-2011, 10:55 PM   #41
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Bill8 ..... excellent post.
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Old 06-01-2011, 10:56 PM   #42
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I guess being stupid to the point of not understanding when and why to walk away is how you wind up $200,000 underwater in the first place.
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Old 06-01-2011, 10:57 PM   #43
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In other words, our leaders failed us.
With disregard for the constitution, there's no guidelines to make things work.

They didn't fail you, they purposely sold you out and continue to do so
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